This is not a good take. Obviously no one knows, but there very serious and good reasons to believe this will not end easily or well.

I'd be curious to know what group thought that Ukraine would be taken in 2 weeks, but also thinks that the Iranian war will be a quagmire.

Either they have a lot of information I'm missing, are complete idiots, or are being dishonest.

You’re missing my point.

No one can know at this stage. It’s called fog of war.

Those who pretend offer easy explanations because people crave easy answers.

It’s not satisfying to say: "it’s very complex, we can’t know, here are the odds". But that’s the current state of affairs.

There's zero chance the US/Israel will win this war and stop 100% of their military actions in the next 8 weeks.

8 weeks is the absolute upper bound of the estimates from the officials of both countries. The officials are clearly lying.