The rental option is really compelling. In Seattle, the missus and I use a mix of biking, walking, public transit, Car2go, Zip car, and UberX. Not owning a car, we make a choice each and every time we go somewhere that balances convenience, travel time, and cost. We save heaps of money, and stay in shape by not having a "default drive" option.
When people have already bought a car and paid a flat insurance rate, the marginal cost of another car trip is very low. Thus, people who own cars don't really make a choice very frequently. Their choice has already been pretty much made once at the outset.
Because carsharing services will almost undoubtedly be the first deployments, self-driving cars cannot come quickly enough for me. I think the net effect is that they will drive (har har) more people to adopt carsharing services. Self-driving cars will solve one of the inconveniences of something like Car2go, namely the need to walk some indeterminate distance to a car.
If they can get more people into an a la carte transportation usage model, I anticipate public transit and non-motorized transportation options will benefit greatly. Since trip costs will only be marginal, the choice to do something other than drive will come up routinely.
As self-driving carsharing fleets replace the >90% idle private vehicles of today, we'll need less land for parking. My hope is that on-street land can be given over to wider sidewalks, better quality bicycling infrastructure, and dedicated transit right-of-way, which will make those modes even more competitive.
In part because I've been personally touched by the mass slaughter on our roadways, I left a career in information security to retrain / work as an urban planner focussing on transportation. Oddly, the nearishness of self-driving vehicles is pushing me back in the direction of my former career. I'm bullish enough on the potential of self-driving vehicles to remake the economics and safety of transportation that I'm now pursuing a PhD researching privacy / security aspects of the "smart city"--including on-demand mobility services. If we can get all this suitably right, I think it will be transformative for society.
The rental option is not at all compelling in NYC (where I live). If you want to get away for the weekend, you are looking at a $275 to $350 rental if you go to Jersey to pick it up. Going to Jersey is an extra hour (and $7.50 per person ferry ride), plus once you're over there, you're going to take a taxi to get to the rental place. You could rent in Manhattan, but then you're looking at $500 for the weekend. With all of that, you have to get to the rental place before they close on Friday, and hope the location you are returning to is open late on Sunday.
I got so annoyed when family members would say "just rent a car and come down to visit us". It's not cheap, it's not easy, and it's not fun.
Renting a car in Stamford, CT is cheap, ~$70 a day.
Zipcar. CityCarShare. A number of other organizations.
Zipcar now have differential pricing (i.e. more expensive on weekends), so a 24 hour rent Mon - Fri is under $100.
Expensive, you may say. But... I pay only $70 per year for a full insurance waiver, all fuel is included, and there are no maintenance costs or other hidden costs.
Last Zipcar I got I used almost a full fuel-tank worth in a 24 hour period. Subtracting fuel from the price put the days rental at about $40. And there's a pod across the street from my apartment (and about a zillion other pods nearby, here in Berkeley CA).
I have friends with a 2-kid family in Manhattan and no car. They use Alamo, and claim it's cheap and easy.
Renting is expensive. Owning a car is also expensive, with more 'hidden' costs that people frequently ignore.
You don't have Zipcar? That's what we use for weekend getaways. The cost and convenience of it makes it an okay deal. We also ride share with friends for hiking, take ferries, trains, bikes, etc.
When people have already bought a car and paid a flat insurance rate, the marginal cost of another car trip is very low. Thus, people who own cars don't really make a choice very frequently. Their choice has already been pretty much made once at the outset.
Because carsharing services will almost undoubtedly be the first deployments, self-driving cars cannot come quickly enough for me. I think the net effect is that they will drive (har har) more people to adopt carsharing services. Self-driving cars will solve one of the inconveniences of something like Car2go, namely the need to walk some indeterminate distance to a car.
If they can get more people into an a la carte transportation usage model, I anticipate public transit and non-motorized transportation options will benefit greatly. Since trip costs will only be marginal, the choice to do something other than drive will come up routinely.
As self-driving carsharing fleets replace the >90% idle private vehicles of today, we'll need less land for parking. My hope is that on-street land can be given over to wider sidewalks, better quality bicycling infrastructure, and dedicated transit right-of-way, which will make those modes even more competitive.
In part because I've been personally touched by the mass slaughter on our roadways, I left a career in information security to retrain / work as an urban planner focussing on transportation. Oddly, the nearishness of self-driving vehicles is pushing me back in the direction of my former career. I'm bullish enough on the potential of self-driving vehicles to remake the economics and safety of transportation that I'm now pursuing a PhD researching privacy / security aspects of the "smart city"--including on-demand mobility services. If we can get all this suitably right, I think it will be transformative for society.