Which economists? Most economists I listened to 3-5 years ago thought everything was fine.
I can justify it by looking around at the world. I see an over-abundance of debt. I see too many imports and not enough exports. I see a housing market that is continuing to decline. More layoffs on the way means even more people won't be able to pay their bills. I see that we are spending too much money on guns and not enough money on butter.
I only took micro and macro in college, so I'm no economist, but all the signs are pointing to more decline. I look to history to tell me what the future will hold and it's looking a lot like 1929, years before the depression started.
My question for you is: What is going to pull us up? What value are we going to create that is going to bring us money?
I do not know when the recession will end, but I would prefer a stronger justification before believing that professional economicists like Dr. Duy of the University of Oregon are necessarily wrong about the recession ending around 2010, and saying that we are heading for a depression is a very strong statement indeed.
Yes, the housing and employment markets are continuing to decline. This is expected. We are still in a recession, and even when it ends those are lagging indicators so they are likely to remain bad even after the recession is over. But the rate at which they decline (in other words, their second derivative) has lessened. Also, many of the leading indicators (stock market, bond market) have stabilized.
I do not understand the relavence of your statement about guns and butter, and if this is so like 1929, how so?
I do not know what will end the recession, or even if something specifically needs to end it. The economy is after all cyclic. but you made a very strong and direct statement that we are heading for a depression. Given that this is contradicted by most of the economic experts that are referenced in newspapers, do you have any stronger justification?
I can justify it by looking around at the world. I see an over-abundance of debt. I see too many imports and not enough exports. I see a housing market that is continuing to decline. More layoffs on the way means even more people won't be able to pay their bills. I see that we are spending too much money on guns and not enough money on butter.
I only took micro and macro in college, so I'm no economist, but all the signs are pointing to more decline. I look to history to tell me what the future will hold and it's looking a lot like 1929, years before the depression started.
My question for you is: What is going to pull us up? What value are we going to create that is going to bring us money?