I don't really follow your math. In your scenario, you're over-selling shares in the lottery ticket (a la "The Producers"), meaning you (as the intermediary) profit if the underlying investment fails, but you lose if the investment succeeds.
As for whether this is investment or speculation, as I understand the Funders Club model, every extra dollar that comes out of an investor's pocket results in one extra dollar going to a startup company. If providing a company with additional capital to pay for up-front costs before they're profitable isn't investing, what is?
Still speculation because these are startups. Had these been stable companies this fund would not have such high ROI potential. Calling it investments has people think there is some sort of security here. There is none. Well, only for the "market makers".
As for whether this is investment or speculation, as I understand the Funders Club model, every extra dollar that comes out of an investor's pocket results in one extra dollar going to a startup company. If providing a company with additional capital to pay for up-front costs before they're profitable isn't investing, what is?