The P5+1, while quite imperfect so was preferable to the current situation that's almost unbelievable. This whole invasion has been a deeply stupid move on the part of the US.
Trump agreed to the MoU saying it's allies would stop attacks, including in Lebanon. Israel continues to bomb it. It's up to Trump to put pressure on Israel to stop in order to make good on his deal. It's no surprise this is instantly falling apart - Trump promised something he couldn't deliver. We can only hope that he does eventually put enough pressure on Israel to stop.
If anything, Israel is increasing its attacks on Lebanon. Ben-Gvir is making on the record comments like "For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn."
Israel absolutely seems to be taking full advantage of Trump to play utter brinkmanship.
Iran’s perspective seems to be that their sovereignty will continue to be threatened by Israel if the US doesn’t start using its considerable amount of leverage over Israel to force them to stand down. I’m not sure how likely this would be, but Trump said that the US would start facing drastic fuel shortages and enter a recession in the next few weeks if he didn’t sign off on the MOU (which seems like a dumb thing to say while negotiations are ongoing but whatever), so it seems like Iran has a lot of power here. Ultimately, I think Trump and Netanyahu’s decision to start this war may result in the largest shift in the Middle Eastern power balance since the post-World War II period.
Trump is almost certainly most concerned about the Epstein blackmail that Israel is holding over him. That's why he's putting Israel's interests before those of the United States. He should be tried for treason.
It was astonishing to see the praise heaped on Trump by Israeli citizens and leaders, who believed he was their savior. I wonder if it's going to change now, not because he's giving up on them (which he seems to), but because they have nobody else left to rely on. Constant incoming ass kissing is effective when it comes to him, so their best strategy might be to keep going until he changes his mind again.
Iran has figured out it can make the US president look like an idiot over and over at relatively low cost to themselves, since they're already so thoroughly excluded from the rest of the world.
Thanks for the support. Agree, on these political posts people would rather censor comments they disagree with than argue against it.
It does appear to skew one way too. You can say far worse things about Israel and not be flagged at all. For example, see these comments here:
waynecochran 12 hours ago | prev | next [–]
[flagged]
lorecore 12 hours ago | parent | next [–]
Israel is mass killing civilians in Lebanon, just as they did in Gaza, while they simultaneously enact pogroms in the West Bank.
How is that a "bad" thing to say about Israel? Sounds factual to me. Or if it's not factual it can be disproven. I don't see what's flag worthy about it?
Well you can definitely crack Donald Trump's image but when it comes to the loss, most of the loss will be borne by common people. Oil prices will once again rise markets once again fall and AI is already taking jobs. Inflation will rise along with unemployment and bad times are coming. This is happening mostly because of the foolishness of Trump.
That tracks. My rule of thumb is that political topics have a 33% group that will never budge and the remaining 4-5% accounts for the lizard man constant[1].
"Strength of party-identity" kind of buries the lede, don't you think? The mainstream Republican party has become a death cult. Individually-tailored mass media is a hell of a drug.
Trump is already hitting disapproval levels seen during the end of W's second term. He actually is bleeding support and politically damaged due to all this.
It gets worse when you break it down into key demographics. In the same way W's presidency influenced millennials away from the GOP, Trump is doing the same for young voters today too.
Non-whites and Gen Z were plus for him in 2024. He has absolutely cratered his support in those two demos.
> He's not really up for re-election, so I'm not sure what approval numbers have to do with it
As an outsider, it seems the US midterm elections are a couple of months from now. If republicans lose, Donald Trump will most likely be impeached for all the mind numbingly high-level corruption and involvement in a pedophile ring.
Quite unlikely to get an impeachment. While there is the (long) possibility of Dems flipping the House and Senate, they will not alone have the votes to force him out without a number of Republicans to defect in the Senate. Anything is possible, but given how much insanity has already been tacitly approved, the economy would have to hit truly apocalyptic levels to expect that outcome.
impeachment is effectively a legal fantasy in the United States. The government does not punish it's own. We couldn't impeach Richard Nixon, a career criminal.
> why does this make Grump look like an idiot any more
Because this time his error is at a new level. Many countries had seen their strategic reserves of gasoline seriously reduced and about to disappear, and the fertilizers (that they need to feed their population in the next year) never arrived on time. His so called "little excursion" could kill much more people than any other of his former actions. For no reason or benefit.
And Israel isn't helping at all. They backstabbed Biden when he needed their help most in the elections, and are backstabbing Trump when he is desperate for the midterms. Everybody can see that Bibi plays Trump like a violin.
I don’t think it’s that. I think Trump and the US could simply use brute force to stop Iran’s attacks, control the strait, and replace the Islamic fundamentalist regime. If they wanted to.
But that’s not profitable to Trump and his family and friends and donors. By making announcements and deals and truces all the time, they can make trades anticipating each dishonest announcement. And that makes them incredibly rich and powerful.
Trump doesn’t care if anyone thinks he’s an idiot. He’s actually doing quite well if you consider the goal to be selfish corruption.
In this case Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah, then had IDF soldiers inside Lebanon try to capture a base that Hezbollah holds. I think it’s reasonable to expect that if you sign a ceasefire and subsequently try to capture a base held by the other party of the ceasefire, they will shoot at you.
