Right, nothing's stopped offshoring for a few decades, especially since the Internet became global. That's why I say what can be offshored pretty much has been. I even know some companies who did it years ago and reversed the policy after it didn't work out as well as they expected.
So higher costs on importing workers might prompt a bit more offshoring, but not much, because if those companies thought those jobs could be done offshore, they'd already be there.
Async development at scale (and especially for revenue generating IP) was still not proven until COVID.
Additonally, the reverse brain drain in much of China, CEE, Israel, and India only kicked off in the late 2010s, and the COVID layoffs and subsequent rehiring made it easier to open an office abroad.
> because if those companies thought those jobs could be done offshore, they'd already be there
Every job that would have gone to someone who requires some kind of work sponsorship can now be justified with a hiring abroad.
I'd recommend reading tfa, and as someone who is on a couple boards, trust me when I am saying that offshoring is now going to go in hyperdrive.
So higher costs on importing workers might prompt a bit more offshoring, but not much, because if those companies thought those jobs could be done offshore, they'd already be there.