I hope everyone reads to the end for the real takeaway — believing you can re-engineer a complex solution from first principles is generally a fool’s errand.
It's a really good takeaway too. Analysis is a tool, not a way of life.
My achilles heel, which is similar, but not the same, is attempting to over-optimise, to the detriment of myself and people around me. I have learnt that sometimes it is ok/best to act with little consideration. Usually it's worth quickly assessing what the worst case scenario is - if it's missing a flight, maybe it's good to apply some detailed analysis. If it's being 15 minutes late too the pub - maybe just get on with life and see what happens. It's a really difficult and pervasive behaviour though, which I find some people cannot understand. I can't go upstairs or downstairs at home without briefly wondering if there is some item that should be elsewhere (washing, scattered toys etc) that I could carry with me. I can't switch a light off without doing a quick evaluation of how long it will be until needs to be back on, and therefore whether or not it is in fact worth turning it off. Gah!