Learning to consistently win nethack completely changed my intuition for low chance risk. Common actions that are 99% reliable but with serious consequences for failure are sure to be run-losing. Even something 99.9% is too dangerous to do more than a handful of times per run if you're trying to streak.
Of course you don't know these numbers directly unless you get deep into the wiki/source. But you don't know the odds when driving on a rainy night either.
Nice! Crossing avalanche terrain (eg: backcountry skiing) is a low chance/high consequence activity. It is easy to learn the wrong thing: I did this before and it was fine, therefore it is safe.
You counter that with observations, forecasts and incident reports, but intuition based on personal experience leads you astray.
A game is much better because you can fail and you just have to restart the game. Make an RDR2 mod.
(edit: more intuitive anyway. It might not be easy to accurately show different snow conditions while also being fun to play)
Of course you don't know these numbers directly unless you get deep into the wiki/source. But you don't know the odds when driving on a rainy night either.