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> Calibrated burndown of story points is pretty much the only basis on which forecasting and management of expectations can be done in an agile process.

Do you mean in an Agile process?

Sorry I have a visceral reaction to this, having seen teams try to accomplish large things by breaking them down into story-level tasks and then sum up the estimates, and then watch the slow motion train wreck as gaps emerge, requirements evolve, learnings accumulate, and everyone throws their hands in the air and points to the long paper trail of tickets that prove they did their job.

Scrum and story points are a reasonable way to drive local incremental improvements when you have no greater ambitions than local optimizations of an established system, but they have a low ceiling for achieving anything ambitious in a large system. At best you'll get solid utilization of engineering resources when you have a steady backlog of small requests, at worst you'll redirect engineers' attention off of the essential details that make or break difficult projects towards administrative overhead and ticket shuffling. I understand why this might be the way to go in a low trust environment, but it's really no way to live for an experienced and talented cross-functional team.



I would love to hear your view of handling ambitious changes in a large system.

(In the middle of this scenario. Mix of experienced/talented and low trust environment.)




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