The Wright flight was in December 1903 and planes were considered for a ban as weapons at the international level in 1911 [1]. Their capabilities and potential were obvious to everyone before the flight occurred. Imagining traveling through the air like a bird was obviously going to be a game changer to even a simpleton. The "Attention Is All You Need" has now been out for over 7 years and so a directly comparable timeline. What do we have? Better autocomplete? Worse search results? An overall efficiency increase of 5%? For people knowledgeable about the technical details, a path to AGI as a bigger LLM is about as probable to a path to AGI as using a big random forest.
Arguing by example is stupid. Plenty of other examples have been proposed elsewhere in this thread. My only contribution is that I think LLMs are not going to yield anything more than incremental efficiency gains. If the only result after 7 years is that NVidia became a new $1T company and no one else then I think it should be becoming more obvious that this is a gold rush situation and not an iPhone situation.
Tangentially related, I've been rather disappointed with the advances coming from software since communication was solved at some point in the early 2000s.
Software mainly seems to enable new business models, of which some tangentially improve our quality of life, others are actively harmful. Contrasting this to advances in technologies like solar panels or electric cars almost makes me wish I had chosen a different career path.
> The Wright flight was in December 1903 and planes were considered for a ban as weapons at the international level in
What a coincidence that we have people trying to ban AI at a domestic and international level
> What do we have? Better autocomplete? Worse search results?
It's ridiculous to minimize LLMs as better autocomplete.
Also I get it, for most people remembering how things were more than a couple of years ago is hard. Can you even remember when you couldn't talk to computers?
Arguing by example is stupid. Plenty of other examples have been proposed elsewhere in this thread. My only contribution is that I think LLMs are not going to yield anything more than incremental efficiency gains. If the only result after 7 years is that NVidia became a new $1T company and no one else then I think it should be becoming more obvious that this is a gold rush situation and not an iPhone situation.
[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_in_World_War_I#cite_n...