I'm sure it's been posted to HN before but Scott Alexander's writing on the FDA is pretty nuanced. "Beyond "Abolish The FDA"[0] is pro-FDA but contains the section "What policy proposal closest to abolish-the-FDA would I feel comfortable supporting in the real world?"
He's been pretty explicit on Lumina too:
"My real opinion, as precisely as I can express it, is:
* Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride: 5%
* Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments: 35%
* Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does: 10%
* Doesn’t work at all and never will: 50%
* Causes minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol: 30%
* Causes medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics: 5%
* Causes disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide: <1%"
He's been pretty explicit on Lumina too:
"My real opinion, as precisely as I can express it, is:
* Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride: 5%
* Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments: 35%
* Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does: 10%
* Doesn’t work at all and never will: 50%
* Causes minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol: 30%
* Causes medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics: 5%
* Causes disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide: <1%"
[0] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/beyond-abolish-the-fda [1] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/updates-on-lumina-probiotic