I thought this article could have been about 95% shorter (let's just say I saw high irony in the cartoon in the article about using AI to summarize needlessly wordy emails).
I think the only place "GPT startups" will really thrive long term is specific niche business areas where the big boys (Google/MSFT) are not likely to want to compete. For example, there was an HN post about a legal startup that used AI for various purposes. I could see that one building a sizable moat over time as "the go-to place for legal AI support" if their UI is good and very tailored to legal-specific workflows.
My primary point is that I think "generic" AI tool startups are likely to fail because the big boys will just build them into their products. E.g. a tool that just helps you write is going to have a hugely difficult time competing against the integrated functionality of Word or Google Docs (I'd be shuddering if I were Grammarly). Google and Microsoft, though, have largely stayed out of dedicated tools for highly specific verticals, and with all of the antitrust eyes on them I think they're likely to stay out of those spaces.
So you're saying that Google, Microsoft, etc., do have moat that smaller companies don't have. Otherwise, I see no reason why these companies couldn't continue to compete with large corporations. For example, if the makers of Papyrus Author successfully integrate AI into their writing application, they would continue to have the same competitive advantage over Microsoft Word they had before - unless Microsoft's AI is more powerful and much better.
I don't know, I consider it possible that at least in the beginning large corporations have moat, just wanted to point out that this is what people are wondering / don't really know at the moment.
I didn't really understand your point. But bringing up Papyrus Author is a great example I think of what I was saying. I'm not previously familiar with Papyrus Author, and I don't know how popular they are, but it's clear they are very much targeting creative writing authors specifically. Their hope is clearly that they can provide enough value to this group so that their price is worth it over a more generic word processor.
We're taking a shot at hardware engineering: www.valispace.com/ai/
And I see similar things happening for major fields such as education, law, art, software development, management, etc.
Here I looked into a few examples of what is happening in these fields already: https://assistedeverything.substack.com/p/the-age-of-assiste...
1. Architecture. I could easily see architecture-specific AI tools being incorporated into design apps.
2. Similarly, interior design tools.
3. AI tools for construction.
4. Anything in healthcare. Healthcare is so regulated and privacy is obviously paramount thus I'm sure there will be companies that spend a ton of time/money providing "HIPAA-compliant" diagnostic support tools.
I think the only place "GPT startups" will really thrive long term is specific niche business areas where the big boys (Google/MSFT) are not likely to want to compete. For example, there was an HN post about a legal startup that used AI for various purposes. I could see that one building a sizable moat over time as "the go-to place for legal AI support" if their UI is good and very tailored to legal-specific workflows.
My primary point is that I think "generic" AI tool startups are likely to fail because the big boys will just build them into their products. E.g. a tool that just helps you write is going to have a hugely difficult time competing against the integrated functionality of Word or Google Docs (I'd be shuddering if I were Grammarly). Google and Microsoft, though, have largely stayed out of dedicated tools for highly specific verticals, and with all of the antitrust eyes on them I think they're likely to stay out of those spaces.