I disagree. I think they're hand is going to be forced because the future is mobile which IE does not control.
I wouldn't even be surprised if MS adopts Webkit.
For MS to leverage IE 'dominance' would be a losing game. They no longer have control over the web. I have no doubt that MS will attempt to control the web with W8 but I think they will lose and do so quickly.
Hm, I’m not sure whether it’s in Microsoft’s best interest to adopt Webkit. I think they will stay with their own rendering engine.
But – as is already obvious – dominance is indeed no longer something they have, will realistically achieve ever again or are able to leverage. If they want to have any say at all when it comes to the web’s future they have to play the standards game. They have to cooperate.
Microsoft is keenly aware of that (though maybe not entirely comfortable), as is evident from the direction they took with IE.
The Microsoft Trident engine is getting more powerful with each iteration. Knowing that it has been around since IE4 in 1997 and seeing where it is today show how extensible it is.
The real problem lies not inside the engine but inside Microsoft themselves. Specifically, within the .NET group. I know everyone on Hacker News loves Ruby, so I'll use that as an example. Microsoft wanted the dynamic language stylings that Ruby offered, so they spent 3 years developing IronRuby that ran on the .NET CLR. Then they suddenly dropped it without warning. Why? Because they had extracted everything they wanted from it. Keeping the technology up to date would not give them anything more than what they already had. Microsoft benefited from it, and when they no longer did, they dropped it. Everything that happens inside Microsoft's core is to strengthen their sellers: Windows and Office. If Windows or Office needs a new technology, they will take it, use it, and .NET-ify it until it becomes proprietary.
If they were to swap Trident for Webkit, it would be the same thing. IE11 built on Webkit for a few years, their development staff would learn from it, and the next release would see Trident 7 (IE12) back in form. Microsoft takes with only nominal giving because that's great for business. They can learn from outside technologies, then use that knowledge to lock people in tighter with better tech.
It's been a while since we've seen Microsoft in true form, pioneering and leveraging their weight to shape the market for their benefit. What we have right now is Microsoft in damage control mode. Moving to Webkit would be more of that, strengthening Trident by sucking the essence out of Webkit or Gecko, directing the flow of HTML5 (and pushing for MSHTML6 afterwards) would be the return of the powerhouse. It'll be interesting to see where things go, but even as someone who sees Microsoft as the best tool for the job in some certain situations, I would't place any bets on Microsoft being the dominant force on the web... ever. Luckily (for them), desktops aren't going anywhere anytime soon.
edit - I should add that, to your point (and mine), Microsoft already does use Webkit where it is advantageous for them: Mac OSX. Instead of continuing development on IE for OSX, they switched Office to Webkit for the Mac. I'd have to believe Trident would have suffered without that move (circa Office 2011).
I wouldn't even be surprised if MS adopts Webkit.
For MS to leverage IE 'dominance' would be a losing game. They no longer have control over the web. I have no doubt that MS will attempt to control the web with W8 but I think they will lose and do so quickly.