This is well written but also very alarmist. There are supply chain issues, but in the west they're limited to certain industries. Amazon orders still arrive in two days. My grocery store is still stocked full. Inflation sucks, and so does the stock market, but we're in the middle of a European war and just out of a global pandemic. Demand has already risen to pre-pandemic levels, so supply will eventually reorient to meet it. All things considered, the economy is still doing pretty great!
Mine have been up to a week now. Prime stuff shipping 5-9 days, only very few select items show up in 2 days. Since 2020 or so the "FREE 2-day shipping" has been replaced with "Free Prime shipping" in the UI and I no longer see 2-day promises. Most "basic needs" items are often 3-4 weeks out or "in stock soon"
> My grocery store is still stocked full
I won't starve, but it's weird noticing a lot of holes in the shelves. They're stocked, but missing certain flavours or product lines. Sure there are lots of other energy drink options, but I can't find Mountain Dew Energy in cherry limeade and haven't been able to for 3 weeks now.
> I won't starve, but it's weird noticing a lot of holes in the shelves.
That’s a completely different part of the supply chain issue, even if you can produce the goods you have to get it shipped which is yet another bottleneck.
Not enough warehouse workers to load the trucks, not enough drivers for the trucks, shipping costs are pretty high due to the fuel surcharge tacked onto each load and having to complete with other manufacturers who also want their goods sitting on the shelf.
SF. It depends on the item, some things still arrive within 2, but a lot more are wildly variable now.
- I have a Baseus USB power bank that was ordered yesterday, arriving next Friday.
- I have some ESP32 kits that has gotten this multiple days in a row: Your package is on the way but running late. We’re sorry for the delay. Now arriving tomorrow by 10 PM.
- USB cable from prime day, amazon basics brand, no shipping ETA, no prediction, and "not yet shipped"
I don't envy the Amazon people though. Already seeing pileups in the mailroom, floor to ceiling boxes dumped on the floor, every delivery locker filled.
Not in Germany at least (for an European data point). I get my prime orders usually in one or two days and the estimated date at the checkout is usually correct.
Without invalidating your larger point that getting something to eat is generally a non-issue, there is nonetheless one group in the US for whom the food shortage is at this very moment acute, national in scale, and unprecedented in recent memory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_infant_form...
There's all kinds of stuff that's affected though. For example, if you want a 16x7 garage door, you're looking at getting it in November or December of this year if you're ordering now [1].
The stuff I've seen issues with have fairly clear demand-side stories behind them. For instance: everything home construction or renovation-wise. A lot of things that were planned around a certain level of demand is struggling to keep up with a boom.
"Supply is unlimited" was 'fleddr's impression of the old status quo, but I don't think that was ever accurate. I think demand was predictable and well-planned-for is a better description of what the status quo was. Historical supply constraints showed themselves in areas like console launches - a certain level was planned for, and it wouldn't be economical to meet that all on day 1 vs a lower steady-state production, for instance.
Covid-induced behavioral changes shifted a lot of demand around very rapidly. We are learning that the system can't respond instantly, but:
* how surprising is that, and is it really something that could realistically be avoided in the future in case of other major instantaneous changes? Investing a lot of money in new garage door production right now is a big gamble - what happens if you clear that backlog and demand settles back to historical levels?
* and, how concerning should that be? Is it indicative of permanent societal decline or future failure? That's the part I'd consider alarmist and poorly supported based on what we've seen so far. Many sorts of leisure goods, grocery store items, etc, have nearly fully recovered compared to summer of 2020 shortages. My amazon orders anecdotally mostly are coming in 1 day. Not all of them have, but which way do we think it'll go?
I just find this really silly that something as simple as a garage door takes 5 months and held up by a global supply chain, given this is the United States and our history of steel and machinery manufacturing.
Carter and Reagan and basically every president afterwards decided that it was better for the economy if the USA didn't have steel plants. They were probably right too unfortunately.
