India, the 2/3 largest producer of wheat/rice has strict controls on exports. Other countries will impose restrictions when they realize their poor will rise up in riots. One theory for arab spring is that it started because of rising food prices.

Food is just not like other commodities. Shortages lead not just to recessions but revolutions. Any Government and society not paying close attention and investing in either ramping up domestic production or stockpiling is going to have a really bad time.