The most reliable number is excess mortality, although it does lag by a month or so due to how long it takes to collect the date. Here is the chart for the US for the past few years:
You can see the massive drop off earlier this year when the vaccines became massively available. Since then, we've been tracking the upper bound of normal. Not great, but probably not bad considering all of the follow on effects of stress, isolation, closing down routine medical exams, job loss, business loss, and many other assorted things that also contribute to excess mortality.
For comparison, you can see the 2017/2018 flu season impact on excess mortality in the same chart.
The latest data on that chart is from Jul 12th due to reporting lag, which was the low point in COVID mortality before delta. There is none of the excess mortality due to delta which is currently captured in that chart.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat...
You can see the massive drop off earlier this year when the vaccines became massively available. Since then, we've been tracking the upper bound of normal. Not great, but probably not bad considering all of the follow on effects of stress, isolation, closing down routine medical exams, job loss, business loss, and many other assorted things that also contribute to excess mortality.
For comparison, you can see the 2017/2018 flu season impact on excess mortality in the same chart.