Given Rocky's claim that investing a large amount up front for a traditional advert placement is equivalent to receiving a short-term loan from Groupon for running a deal on the site, then Groupon is merely like all other direct marketing/direct response operations. So you can probably predict how successful Groupon could be by comparing it to something like Valpak.
Despite the fact that Groupon shifts the marketing costs from the merchant to the customer, it probably won't affect couponing behavior in the long run. To me this is like chess where the players have switched sides after a match. It's the same game, but a new player gets the first-move advantage this time around.
Groupon Now! seems slightly more interesting and possibly has more potential.
My wild, unsubstantiated prediction is that they'll IPO, fizzle out and be bought out by some media/new media conglomerate by 2014.
Despite the fact that Groupon shifts the marketing costs from the merchant to the customer, it probably won't affect couponing behavior in the long run. To me this is like chess where the players have switched sides after a match. It's the same game, but a new player gets the first-move advantage this time around.
Groupon Now! seems slightly more interesting and possibly has more potential.
My wild, unsubstantiated prediction is that they'll IPO, fizzle out and be bought out by some media/new media conglomerate by 2014.