The order doesn't specify blocking of traffic, just peering/CDN-like services

And then you'll just have to use a VPN, a proxy, or an alternate DNS depending on how it's made. Big deal.

How big an overlap do you think the TikTok market and the "willing and able to set up and pay for a VPN on their phone" market is?

Actually, quite big. And a VPN likely wouldn't be needed at all, it's a worst case scenario.

In any case, if people are willing to pay for an iPhone with TikTok pre-installed, they're willing to pay 2$ a month (or less) for a VPN.

Well, it's about to get a lot bigger. For most teens, it would be trivial to learn.

In US

Would say the CDN will hurt TikTok the most.

You know, just using a foreign CDN works. It's not optimal, but it works surprisingly well.