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Rewards programs are not what keep competitors to Visa at bay, network ubiquity is.

Phones will replace credit cards.

I have a friend who works in IT for a fast food chain. They are gearing up for the iPhone5 among others. Drivers will be able to place their order on the highway for the next franchise location. When they arrive, they waive their phone at the proximity payment box and collect their food. The phone acts as both a payment method and a loyalty card with user history data down to the 'no mayo on the fish sandwich.'



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