Thanks for qualifying more. I'm surprised you didn't mention having humans in the video as a point - since that's pretty much what we're best at detecting fakes.
I believe the technology already is at a point for us to do this. The technology isn't the barrier to meet your criteria as much as the attention to detail. For a rendered video scene to look good, the main issue is the animation.
Still image renders are already at the point of fooling humans if enough time went into it. Then the remaining issue is the animation. Animation requires incredible attention to detail - some of which can be improved by a more nuanced understanding of the physics involved (eg water simulation or bird flight).
> no one, anywhere, has achieved fully realistic CG video
According to your specific criteria for realistic CG video.
But I still would argue the technology is already there. They just haven't made your video yet because realistic CG is done in movies. And movies aren't prioritizing meeting that specific criteria. But the talent and technology is there.
Of course it breaks your rubric for having the boy be real. But get rid of the boy, and less stylized setting (high saturation and fog and smooth tracking camera), people would absolutely be fooled in at least some of the scenes in that clip.
> In a scientific setting, a nature video will wipe the floor with our best CG video ten out of ten times.
I believe the technology already is at a point for us to do this. The technology isn't the barrier to meet your criteria as much as the attention to detail. For a rendered video scene to look good, the main issue is the animation.
Still image renders are already at the point of fooling humans if enough time went into it. Then the remaining issue is the animation. Animation requires incredible attention to detail - some of which can be improved by a more nuanced understanding of the physics involved (eg water simulation or bird flight).
> no one, anywhere, has achieved fully realistic CG video
According to your specific criteria for realistic CG video.
But I still would argue the technology is already there. They just haven't made your video yet because realistic CG is done in movies. And movies aren't prioritizing meeting that specific criteria. But the talent and technology is there.
What about scenes like this from the Jungle Book?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6yKWQ24rF8
Of course it breaks your rubric for having the boy be real. But get rid of the boy, and less stylized setting (high saturation and fog and smooth tracking camera), people would absolutely be fooled in at least some of the scenes in that clip.
> In a scientific setting, a nature video will wipe the floor with our best CG video ten out of ten times.
Okay