>we can expect it to get much better than it is today
Which is not a high bar to clear. It literally only got where it is now because execs and product people love themselves another standard, because if they get their products to support it they can write that on some excel sheet as shipped feature and pin it on their chest. Even if the standard sucks on a technical level and the spec changes all the time.
GPT-4 came out 3 years ago and you can run comparable models for 1% of the cost nowadays. That is not 2x efficiency. That's two orders of magnitude in end-to-end compute efficiency.
you're looking at nearly the entire curve of the tech's development. that's like saying lightbulbs became 99% more energy efficient and therefore will become another 99% more energy efficient. but most techs follow an S curve.
>you're looking at nearly the entire curve of the tech's development
That's a pretty strong statement that would need some data or at least a mathematical argument to back it up. Otherwise it's like saying in the 1980s that PCs with 640kB RAM have reached their pinnacle in terms of what users can expect in real life benefits and there's no reason to keep pushing the tech.
*entire curve to-date (I should have clarified). Yes it will get better for a long time, but where we are on the curve is harder to say. Lots of metrics to choose from, like "well it's incorrect 90% less often than a year ago, so that's a 10x improvement!". But the real metric that matters is how useful it is to people, and based on user data it looks like the only area it's getting exponentially more useful YoY is for programming. Lot of coders using it 10x more than before to code 10x faster. Not sure any other profession uses it for more than a juiced-up search engine / proofreader.
Tbf that sounds like a strong bias from someone who works exclusively in software development and simply hasn't found other uses. But I have worked with integrating LLMs across quite a few applications and departments by now and I can comfortably say that programming is not the only thing where we see extreme benefits. I wouldn't even say it's the area that has seen the most benefit so far. There used to be a lot of mundane work outside of software development that was easy prey even for early models. And with the current cutting edge models I'm pretty sure that you could replace >75% white collar jobs if you just get the context engineering right. That's the hard part right now, not the raw intelligence necessary for arbitrary data processing. But frameworks are getting there fast.
Apparently they got coerced by the current US admin. The department of war in particular, who want to use their products for military applications. Not much room for "safety" there. Then again, the entire US is currently speedrunning an evil build.
Department of Defense is the official name, and they did have a choice: they could have stopped working with the military. But they chose money and evil.
Not sure what you mean by "official." They call themselves that way:
https://www.war.gov/
It doesn't matter that there exists another name on some paper, when all official, ceremonial and public communications use this name. The old name is about as worthless as the constitution or the senate at this point. The executive branch has successfully taken over the country.
>Is she paying for it? That is the only question that matters in the end.
Don't underestimate advertising. Noone pays for Facebook or Google search. Yet the ad business with a couple billion users seems profitable enough to fund frontier LLM research and inference infrastructure as a side-gig in these companies. Google only rushed out AI overview because they saw ChatGPT eating their market share in information retrieval and Zuck is literally panicking about the fact that users share more personal details with OpenAI than on his doomscrolling attention sinks.
OpenAI is talking out of their ass with their advertising plans. Meta and Google are an advertising duopoly, extremely anti-competitive, and basically defrauding their own customers. OpenAI can't just replicate that.
Worse still is that OpenAI has no competitive edge. All the hype around their advertising plans is based on the idea that they can blend the ads right into the response, a turbocharged version of Native Advertising.
This is explicitly illegal. Very explicitly.
The US' FTC may have been declawed by the current US government, but the rest of the west will nuke them from orbit over it. Doubtless OpenAI will try some stunt alike marking the entire LLM response as "this is an ad", but that won't satisfy the regulators.
This only gets worse with further problems. An LLM hallucinating product features is going to invoke regulator wrath as well, and an LLM deciding to cut off the adcopy early will invoke the wrath of the advertiser.
> Yet the ad business with a couple billion users seems profitable enough to fund frontier LLM research and inference infrastructure as a side-gig in these companies
Also important: Not anymore. The tech giants are now issuing quite a lot of debt to pay for the AI plans.
If that were true Meta and Google wouldn't be so desperate to get in the game. And don't think that other nations would step in against abusive marketing practices. The EU has been battling uphill for decades and the only ones who had some moderate success for user rights are private groups like NYOB. There is no law that will save the old tech companies and they know it.
Maybe I am underestimating how suggestible average people are as someone who has never in their lives clicked on an ad I just can't see ads being anything but a deterrent for using the service
You sure are. And it sounds like you are also underestimating the effect yourself as well. In fact this perception is so common that there is even a name for it in psychology: Third-person effect. Many people believe that advertising does not affect them. But ironically, the more you believe so, the more likely you are to fall victim to particular types of advertising. And in general your response to ads will be very similar to everyone else's. These "annoying" ads that you "would never click on" are just badly personalized or badly placed ads. That's the only type that gets stuck in your mind when you think of ads, based on your personal biases. But the major tech companies have spent the last one-and-a-half decades on perfecting the psychology of advertising. You might think you are immune, but you are certainly not. Every buying decision you have made in the last 10 years was almost certainly influenced to some degree. Just not always consciously. And I'm willing to bet that a lot of buying decisions were already heavily influenced by ChatGPT, even before their shopping feature. OpenAI just didn't profit on them as much as they could.
Influenced to some degree sure, weather influences me to some degree, but I truly feel like ads aren't affective on me. Unless we broaden definition of ads to something like sponsored content. I have bought some TTRPG rules sets after I have seen them being played in a sponsored video, but I still have never clicked an ad on a page and bought something.
And I actually have tried to use ChatGPT to buy something. I have asked it to search for specific items from EU stores so I wouldn't need to pay import taxes, but usually it fails. It either suggests Global stores which ship from US or China or it suggests different products than what I asked for.
If ChatGPT or whatever LLM I was using could actually link me the products I wanted without me searching for them they should get a commission for sure, but we sure aren't there yet.
> but I still have never clicked an ad on a page and bought something.
But millions, and millions, and millions of people do. Certainly enough that I provide consulting services for a number of businesses for whom the majority of their revenue comes 95+% from ad-clicks. It's been that way 10-15 years and there have been ups and downs, but at the end of the day, the adspend has always been fruitful.
Whilst I sat around with fellow technical people all patting themselves on the back telling themselves and anyone who will listen "ads dont work" the people I consult too have become multi-millionaires with little more than double digit hosting costs and a few ads accounts.
This seems to be a continual blind spot for a lot of techincal people who really seem to struggle to grasp that not everybody thinks or acts the same way they do.
However, I believe an ad it still influences you subconsciously as long as it is in your sight line.
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a lot of investigation into subtly slipping advertising in the LLM responses the way Korean dramas have product placement right in the storyline (Subway, bbq chicken, beverages, makeup, etc).
Subtle things like the guy in CSI Miami talking about how good Subway is for 5 minutes?
Of course stuff in the world influences me, I am still a human. Still I have never clicked an ad and bought something. I simply don't get who would. Same as with the super market placing candy and stuff next to the cashier to get people to buy more, I have never been swayed by those because when I go to the store I am always on a mission and know before hand what I am buying.
It would be cool to see all the times I have been influenced into buying something because of subconscious advertisement, but that's kind a impossible so all I can do is deny it and of course all marketing people will say that I am wrong.
And we can argue forever what counts as an advertisement. For example I recently bought a new mouse pad, I wasn't particularly looking for a specific one, just something fun and bright and as I was browsing a web store they had a cool design for half off and I bought it. Maybe that was targeted advertisement, but I had already made the decision to buy a new mousepad and had been browsing on and off for few weeks, so was it really? I would argue not.
You seem to have defined ads as "obvious calls to action that end up in me buying it for sure". That's a pretty narrow view of marketing, but it does feel like you are aware that there may be other forms as you provide examples across the thread. It comes off as some form of elitism, where you deem the simplest ads as ineffective on yourself (but work on "average people") - but then go on to mention things like discounts and sponsorships, which to most are obvious marketing ploys too. No judgement, but maybe reflect on this?
Is discount really an ad? Like if I had already made a decision to buy a thing and now I paid less for it was it really a working ad?
Also sponsored content is way different than having ads on a website or in an app or what kind of ads do you think GPT will have?
And you are definitely judging me. When people say “ads” that is pretty specific thing that they mean. If you broaden it to mean everything then I can’t argue as there is no point.
There is two options either ads (as in those things every one blocks with uBlock Origin) do not work on people OR they do work on most people but not on me, if anything they are a deterrent from buying that product.
In most cases, yes. At minimum, it’s a marketing tactic built with the same intent as an ad: to influence your decision-making.
> Also sponsored content is way different than having ads on a website or in an app
However they are all exactly the same, in that they are all ads.
> When people say “ads” that is pretty specific thing that they mean.
No, that’s what you mean. Most people aren’t limiting it to a specific kind of ad, they mean anything designed to influence their behavior, shape their decisions, or sell them something.
> And we can argue forever what counts as an advertisement.
Or we can just work off the available definitions of modern advertising.
"An ad is any paid or strategically placed message designed to influence attention, perception, or purchasing behavior, regardless of format or channel."
> There is two options
There are in fact not. There are two you seem cable of recognising, but there are in fact others.
> OR they do work on most people but not on me
That’s an oversimplification. Ads can work in aggregate without working every time, in every format, or in the specific way you imagine.
Blocking one specific type of ad doesn’t make you immune to ads, it just means you’re filtering one, very narrow channel.
Influence happens through a huge variety of other means, including those that you seem to think specifically don't count and include, but are not limited too, sponsorships, discounts, product placement, social proof, algorithmic recommendations, brand exposure and many, MANY more.
You don’t have to consciously click an ad for advertising to shape your buying behavior.
> Any message designed to promote or sell a product, service, or brand, where there is a material connection between the speaker and the advertiser.
Yes, a discount is an ad - sometimes by the brand/manufacturer to get you to buy their product instead of a competitor, or by the seller to sell that product over others (for even mundane reasons like stock clearing).
Yes, sponsored content is an ad. The content creator is reimbursed for their output that is used to convince viewers to perform some purchase activity, usually over alternatives.
You’re really severely restricting the definition yourself by claiming an ad is “things that ublock origin” blocks. They can’t block physical banners and billboards or TV commercial breaks - does that now make them not ads? Whether you intended to buy something again doesn’t disqualify something from being an ad. In fact, that’s often when an ad is most effective - to buy the one they show you, instead of one you haven’t heard of or considered.
Ads aren't just for click through, they are for suggestions, and mind share as well.
You can't click on the budweiser logo when watching super bowl ad. But if you sit in your chatgpt window all day then it's probably worth it for advertisers to expect to build familiarity with brands they advertise.
Really depends what the ads are. If they are popups or other intrusive ads the product will just die. If they are subtle hints in the text how are you going to track it. I don't know, I just don't believe in ads, but then again I am dirty commie so who am I to tell you not to
That’s not the point. The point is that brands build awareness through ads that don’t require clicking and this ha effected you whether you want to admit it or not
Your messages are very consistent, it all adds up and makes perfect sense.
I don't care either.
Online I get lots of ads blocked, but not all, I really don't put much effort into it beyond default.
So what if I am "influenced" if it doesn't effect any significant part of my behavior.
One thing I never do is respond with money.
I'm just not a "consumer" so that goes back before the internet.
Sure I see ads thrown at me which keep me aware of those brands but the only buys I make would happen without any ads.
On the rare occasion that I want to make a significant purchase, then I will seek out the ad. Oh the horror !
But I want to see how honest I think it is compared to a number of reviews. It's really pretty neutral since it's just as much me using the ad as the ad using me, plus equally good for knowing what looks good to buy as knowing what brand not to buy.
Then there's the interesting way when an overall economic downturn gets rougher you see ads for things that almost never need advertising for years in a row, or never have before :\
OTOH you also see some of the most trivial stuff that must be flying off the shelf and all you can do is shake your head ;)
Imagine subliminal messages being sent in the llm responses carefully created for max impact on you. I’m sure many companies will pay to recommend their product on ChatGPT.
Accurate detection in individuals is still important for testing any potential cure. Otherwise you can only do normal population studies over a very long time and pray that you didn't miss on any confounding variables. With this level of accuracy in diagnosing, you can do targeted testing.
While that is true, it doesn't change the sentiment behind “We have no cure. I don’t want to know.” if knowing the diagnosis doesn't help you personally. Sure you might have a sense of responsibility for mankind but you still know you can't do anything to save yourself.
With that said, lifestyle changes can slow down the onset of Alzheimer's, so knowing the diagnosis isn't totally useless.
A lot of people have enough of a sense of responsibility to donate blood, or donate their organs.
I've long had the suspicion that much of what is called Alzheimers or dementia is some form of prion disease. This study doesn't show that, exactly, but it shows that abnormal proteins may be directly correlated.
So - and I'm not saying this is the case - but suppose that the abnormal proteins identified in this study could be transmitted by blood transfusions or organ transplants. Wouldn't that itself be enough for your diagnosis to help you personally not transmit those proteins to someone else?
If your attitude is that no one else in the world matters once you get a bad diagnosis, then nothing really mattered to you before. Other people are working day and night trying to cure you, so there's no cause for that level of nihilism. You may as well try to help from the vantage point you have.
This is an incredibly short sighted, fragile-ego protecting, selfish instinct.
Making plans while you are cognizant is valuable, and the sooner you know, the longer and better plans you can make. Making plans with friends and family should be done sooner than later with these kinds of things.
It absolutely helps to personally to know, but people avoid emotional pain like the plague. So they delay and delay and then the emotional pain is amplified anyway when things come to ahead. It really is better to rip that band-aid off sooner... I think.
Maybe it is, and I'm not saying that's how I think. I would prefer to know the diagnosis. But that's not necessarily how everyone, or even most people, would act. So what if this is fragile ego and selfish? Are people not allowed to be weak, selfish?
I think at this point they know all these opinions pretty well, but they simply don't care or see better growth options by targeting users who don't belong to that particular bubble. They see OpenAI approaching the same active user counts as Facebook and they want a slice of that pie. And the majority of that pie is non-techies.
The issue here is that the people commenting on whether something is a good or bad idea usually don't have the necessary insight to give useful comments either way. But with certain trendy topics, many people still feel the need to express their shallow opinions. That is especially true on HN, because many like-minded people will chime in, upvote and increase visibility as long as they themselves feel validated, irrespective of whether what was said is true or not.
In fact I'd love to see an inverse to this list. I.e. shit people celebrated here that failed miserably. Although failure as a business can have many reasons and must not necessarily be due to the core business idea. It's probably much harder to get this data than searching early HN threads for high value IPOs. You'd have to search for popular threads and then track down the companies and find out what happened eventually.
It also varies inside countries. Some priests are simply more demure than others. The church as an institution certainly prefers the more radical conservatives as you go higher up the chain, but many low level employees that still talk to commoners do realize that these views are going to put off more people than they attract in developed countries. So in the long term they will only be left with a bunch of crazy radicalists and a silent majority that wants absolutely nothing to do with them.
Have you seen the current pope? He's a big step back from the last one. And the reason for this is the cardinals who wanted back, because they were never fully on board anyway. Then again what would you expect from a group where average age is significantly older than even US congress.
The current pope is a little more traditional, but it’s hard not to be more traditional than Francis. However, the cardinals as a whole are more or less on board with the previous pope’s agenda, American bishops a little less so, and many American priests much less so. Outside of America, you may be right (the brewing rebellion in Germany being an extreme counter example).
I would say that the burden of proof is yours first.
But since you asked...
> The church as an institution certainly prefers the more radical conservatives as you go higher up the chain
Where are these "radical conservative" bishops? They're anything but "radical". If anything, they tend toward a soft middle that is very slow to act. Indeed, that's one of the gripes "radtrad" types tend to have. They would prefer more bishops were made in their own image.
Instead, we see bishops aggressively curtailing more traditional expressions of the faith, while permitting plenty of liturgical abuse of, shall we say, a decidedly "untraditional" stripe.
> So in the long term they will only be left with a bunch of crazy radicalists and a silent majority that wants absolutely nothing to do with them.
You can't be serious. If anything characterizes the post-Vatican II Church, it has been the greater influence of "progressive" and "modernist" elements, some of them quite radical. Only in relatively recent times are we seeing a growing, younger crop returning to traditional forms. You can expect that the Church will look more traditional within a generation or two.
Your claim reminds me of those who clamored to make the Church more "relevant". They claimed that if the Church didn't do so, it would lose the youth and imperil the future of the Church.
Instead, what we saw was the reverse. As the Church became more "relevant" - which is to say, more concerned with the temporal and the temporary, conforming to the times instead of shaping men and the times - it became less appealing to the youth. It should be obvious in retrospect. What people desire from the Church is the eternal and the transcendent, not more of the same that you can get elsewhere and in bulk.
So, all that "relevance" produces is a large exit of the youth from the Church. Attend a "progressive" parish and you'll see plenty of empty pews with a few aging boomers. Go to a more traditional parish, and you see the pews brimming with families. These are not isolated cases. These are broad trends.
If you do see a swing toward the traditional, it is not because "crazy radicalist conservative" bishops are concentrating those elements, but because of a process of natural selection. "Relevance", it turns out, is dysgenic. And as the traditional element increases and becomes more visible, so does the visibility of its substance, which is what attracts converts and reverts.
So.. you basically agree, you just don't like the wording because you somehow felt personally attacked? Given your reasoning I suspect you work(ed) for the church in some capacity or are at least deeply involved. But it'll be quite obvious to anyone reading this that it is not exactly an objective opinion.
This is just a sad comment. Please stick to the merit and substance instead of reaching for bizarre speculation about my motives. And no, I do not work or have ever worked for the Church. I am an observer with an above average knowledge of what is occurring in the Church. The idea that I am necessarily less objective for that reason, and less than an ignorant outsider, is ridiculous and fallacious.
And for your information, my motive is correctness. I get annoyed by confidently expressed, ignorant claims posing as knowledge, especially when it is unfair to the accused party.
> So.. you basically agree, you just don't like the wording
No. I disagree with your reasoning, which I took the time to explain in detail and which you seem to have completely ignored.
Blowing more than 800kb on essentially an http api wrapper is actually kinda bad. The original Doom binary was 700kb and had vastly more complexity. This is in C after all, so by stripping out nonessential stuff and using the right compiler options, I'd expect something like this to come in under 100kb.
Doom had the benefit of an OS that included a lot of low-level bits like a net stack. This doesn’t! That 800kB includes everything it would need from an OS too.
Maybe you’re misremembering or referring to Doom (2016). The original Doom was developed for DOS and id had to build a lot of its own network stack. BSD style socket based networking wasn’t a given in DOS.
Doom is ingenious, but it is not terribly complex IMHO, not compared to a modern networking stack including WiFi driver.
The Doom renderer charm is in its overall simplicity. The AI is effective but not sophisticated.
yeah i sandbagged the size just a little to start (small enough to fit on the c3, 888 picked for good luck & prosperity; I even have a build that pads to get 888 exactly), so i can now try reduce some of it as an exercise etc.
but 100kb you’re not gonna see :) this has WiFi, tls, etc. doom didn’t need those
Which is not a high bar to clear. It literally only got where it is now because execs and product people love themselves another standard, because if they get their products to support it they can write that on some excel sheet as shipped feature and pin it on their chest. Even if the standard sucks on a technical level and the spec changes all the time.
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