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Yes and no, unless you have a magic ball its best to DCA. Maybe at best, you could do a modified DCA so that you're not buying Bitcoin when its at all time highs.


> The reason why we have inflation and debt is to keep the value of our currencies stable

A stable currency would have an inflation rate of 0%. Inflation does not cause currency stability, it decreases the value of the currency.

By definition, its value is changing.


Not true, if money supply does not grow with population or economic growth it will be deflationary aka not stable. If deflation continues then people will hold onto money rather than buy things with it since things become relatively cheaper every day, which leads to economic downturn.


Is that a bad thing? Items would become more durable, planned obsolescence for products would all but disappear. Things would need to last a long time otherwise people won't spend on it. It would be good for landfills, fewer electronics and plastic garbage. I think it's sad that people in 2020s aftaid to hold savings because they know if they don't spend it, their buying power is reduced tomorrow.


> A stable currency would have an inflation rate of 0%

Sure, and if the government had centralized control of all prices, it could mandate that. Since it doesn't (even those that assert that power don't have it in practice), what it seeks to do, as far as stability, is try to acheive low short-term price volatility, and as it turns out, experience shows that low-to-moderate inflation helps with that.


The M1 [0] tracks physical currency in the economy. It would appear there is a rather large amount of literal money printing afoot. So while a sharp turn to dictatorship could stabilise the currency, there are probably less extreme measures the US government could take to keep inflation at 0%. 75% of (physical, not the important ones in bank accounts) dollars literally appeared after 2016.

The M1 isn't the measure that matters - but it is a fact that large amounts of money are appearing from somewhere and that is probably the most significant factor in the currency losing value. Price controls are an overreaction, there are easier ways to make the currency more stable.

[0] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m1


> The M1 [0] tracks physical currency in the economy.

No it doesn't. M1 also includes demand deposit accounts (checking and savings accounts), among other things that aren't physical currency.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m1.asp


A stable currency would have a stable Velocity. This is something both USD(which is inflationary) and BTC(which is deflationary) get wrong. We need a flationary currency.


The USD historically has an inflation rate of 4% a year; or prices double every 17 years.

The USD is one of the most stable currencies in the world.


Exactly! Sad to see this kind of financial illiteracy on HN in the GP


If your time horizon is long enough, volatility shouldn't matter. Historically speaking Bitcoin is getting less volatile with every market cycle. I would not be surprised if in the future its volatility is comparable to the S&P500.

Why would any sane person invest in real estate? You have maintenance costs, property taxes, it's not liquid and you can go years with little growth. Not to mention if your area see's hard economic times (i.e. Detroit), the chance of a rebound is slim.


Less volatile with every market cycle?

Nassim Taleb disagrees: https://youtu.be/dLOeBSaq-Ps

I bet the CoinGeek conference audience were stunned by his keynote talk because Taleb used to be a supporter.


I can live on land. I can't live on a string.

You also ignore the premise being put forth, that Bitcoin as a currency still isn't ideal. You don't think "long term investment" with currency so much as short to medium term. Like, will bread and milk cost 10x as much next week?

"Stop thinking investment and start thinking survival" might be a good way to put it.


The original comment was about protecting yourself against inflation. Not sure how your comment is related.


Ah. I got subthreads confused.


Maybe if he meant less than 5% of miners make money. I could potentially believe this, given the competitive nature of mining.

However, as an investment, as of right now, there is only a span of a few months where if you bought Bitcoin you would not be in the green right now.


Every bubble does that all the time until it bursts.

Did people find a useful reason to buy Bitcoin already? Something that creates value, instead of hopping to sell higher for the next sucker?


My stocks are worthless to me, other than hoping to sell high for the next sucker.


It's not whether they are useful for you, it's whether they are useful for anybody at all. If they did never and will never pay a dividend or have a buyback, then yes, they are a pyramid.

But it was just a matter of thinking a bit about it. Everybody knows what Bitcoin is useful for: cyber-extortion and evading capital restrictions. There are even good reasons for practicing the last one... With that in mind, BTC still behaves like a bubble, but proving it's actually one depends on a quite laborious process of comparing the volumes and estimating how they will evolve.


Crypto != Bitcoin. There’s a lot of exciting innovation happening in defi and other areas. The argument that crypto is only used for trading is well out of date


Just because an asset is near an all-time high doesn't make it a good investment.


You’re only in the green if you sell.


Do you treat your 401k the same way?


...and there is liquidity to do so


This is not true, saturation points on staking pools exist to encourage people moving to other pools, this causes more decentralization not less. Additionally, from a hardware perspective setting up a pool takes significantly less capital compared to PoW mining.


I'm not sure I get your argument, staking takes significantly less powerful hardware so its very accessible.

Staking pools also have a "saturation point" to encourage decentralization. That way not all 80 Billion dollars worth of ADA goes to one staking pool.

Very hard to see how oligopolies can arise in this scenario when compared to mining operations that are unprofitable to most users (and of course bad for the environment).


I think he was arguing for the effectiveness of the proof of work consensus mechanism as opposed to Cardano's PoS's. As someone else described to me:

"..nodes just vote on a block to state whether or not they think it is valid. Once a block gets enough votes, then it is added to the chain."

Whereas a PoW will "just blaze". Is this correct?


I read all my pdf's using the Emac's library pdf-tools and epub's with the library Nov.el

Works pretty great


Somehow I ended up getting a perfect score in every category, which in my company is not typical and I was given pretty much no feedback.

I'm confident my manager was scolded for the score he gave me by his boss or hr.

Ever since he's given me the most middle of the road scores . The only take away I've gotten from this experience is that performance reviews in my company are more political then actually reflective of your performance.


This really gets me:

  I was given pretty much no feedback
This is exactly what happened to me a few years back. I was so eager for that review since we had all our KPIs recorded and I knew I had a perfect record, and all I heard was something along the lines "I have nothing bad to say". In that review, my manager said my results would warrant at least an A, and a promotion would probably be on the way. Probably.

A few weeks later I received a letter with my C rating, and I left the company a few months later.


I once had an interesting review: "Ordinarily if someone had given me this list of accomplishments I would give them I very good review. But I just don't like you". Sometimes reviews serve you well in ways you don't expect ;-) Especially when you are at the start of your career, you don't always twig that the place you are working in is completely dysfunctional.


Neomutt is good but it can be a pain to configure without a script. I recommend people who want to use Neomutt for the first time use this wizard https://github.com/LukeSmithxyz/mutt-wizard


I justed started using mutt configured using this wizard since I have to use exchage/outlook for work which still has a really buggy web UI. So far it's working a lot better than when I've previously tried to manually set up mutt.


I wonder how effective this soap is when used as a cleaning agent compared to commercial options.


If you have too much lye in it, it will be ridiculously "effective", as its caustic basic property will hurt your skin. Too much tallow, and you essentially just smear fat on yourself.

No real reason why this, blended well to a reasonable pH level, would not be as effective as what we have today.


Further, it's likely our society places a disproportionately large emphasis on "super-effective" cleaning agents.

We don't need to wipe off every drop of our skin oil every day in order to eliminate bad smells or function regularly and healthfully around others.


Your skin has oils. It's a good thing to be on the oil side of the balance. If you're on the other side the excess lye is making more soap out of you.


Everlasting soap?


This is a legitimate cold processed soap recipe, just like you’d buy at a fancy store or farmers market. Unfortunately most “soap” you buy in stores is actually a detergent bar, which is much stronger.


This comment sent me down a mini rabbit-hole to find the differences between soap & detergent: https://www.nycoproducts.com/resources/blog/simple-science-t...


I've made soap using tallow I rendered at home and lye from the hardware store. It works great! I'm not sure what purpose the salt or flour serves.


Probably not as good, but still somewhat effective. There seems to be an entire niche of artisanal soap makers out there at every farmers market/craft fare hawking their olive/palm/whatever soaps that smell of tobacco and cedarwood sea foam.... from what I’ve used of them, they work, just not as well/completely.


Generally, I think artisanal soapmakers buy lye flakes rather than making it from ash. Fundamentally, you need lye, water, and fat (or oil). Usually I think vegetable oils are used, rather than animal fat.


You can get beef suet quite cheaply at a butcher; I think I paid $2/lb or less. This is easily rendered into beautiful white tallow, which in turn makes a lovely soap. You can mix in some olive or coconut oil if you like, but there's no technical reason you can't use pure animal fat to make soap.

It may reduce your potential customers a bit, especially at a particularly crunchy farmer's market, but the soap will be fine :)


Proctor & Gamble was founded in Cincinnati near the slaughterhouses where tallow was readily available. William Proctor made candles and James Gamble made soap. https://news.pg.com/blog/procter-meets-gamble


Procter


Most soaps use tallow (beef fat) as it's the cheapest and most plentiful fat, due to the beef industry making a lot of it. But vegetable oil-based is the more "attractive" soap; it's generally modified to be softer on the skin and causes less harsh reactions than tallow, and of course there's vegan soap.


We make soap at home, from vegetable oils, lard and other fats. Just basic cold-process stuff, erring ever so slightly on the side of over-fatted soap.

It works great, it cleans well and I haven't had any issues with dry skin since we started using it.

The only real downside is that we get a bit of soap scum in the shower, but it's manageable.


This is essentially Savon de Marseille. Some still swear by it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marseille_soap


How so? That page says Marseille Soap is made from vegetable oils, whereas the recipe in the article uses animal fat.


Animal fat is also allowed in Savon de Marseille as long as it qualifies under regulation CE 1774/2002 on the use of animal derivatives for cosmetics.

The point is that it's a very plain soap and goes back to the 14th century.

(I had linked to the English wikipedia article but it's the French one that has more details, sorry for the confusion.)


That’s essentially any “pre-industrial” bar of soap.


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