> the only viable solution becomes giving the movement its demands.
This interpretation reeks of Western naivete. Students were not merely arrested — they were gunned down en masse in the streets and even in hospitals. They were provoked by the U.S. president, who promised support to take on the institutions, but that support never materialized. The likely endgame of this current gunboat diplomacy is similar to Venezuela: the U.S. secures resource access while leaving the existing system intact, and the student protesters are hunted down. In other words, nothing changes for the people demanding reform.
As you can see in this article the non-Western Tolstoy was influenced by many non-Western religious and philosophical figures. Tolstoy then influenced the non-Western Mahatma Gandhi to successfully implement these ideas.
While Russia is not quite a western country, the European upper classes around St. Petersburg and Moscow were no less "western" in philosophy and thought than people from nearby Latvia, Ukraine or Finland.
Tolstoy delighted in Schopenhauer, a western philosopher who he based much of his later ideas on. And yes, Tolstoy was later influenced by eastern thought, and was famously a Sinophile, but that is, again, a western tendency common among upper class europeans of the period (along with Japonisme).
Furthermore, "War and Peace" is often called one of the greatest works of "western literature". It's even included in Encyclopedia Brittanica's "Great Books of the Western World".
Just because the Russian Empire wasn't universally western doesn't mean large groups of people within were not. My own great grandparents came to America from St. Petersburg and considered themselves western.
The only thing that can make Russia "western" is if you equate white and western.
MAGA is western, because it is American. Russia is not western, because it is neither europe nor america. And they themselves consider themselves east. And did for over a hundred years.
If you have traveled a bit around the world, and first hand experienced different cultures, you will recognize that Russia of Moscow/Petersburg and other big cities is much closer to 'west' than to 'east' of China/India/Japan/Mongolia/Indonesia.
Maybe not western enough for you, it does have a distinct flavour (but then Sicilia is also distinctly different from Sweden), but still much closer to Europe than to Asia proper.
> The only thing that can make Russia "western" is if you equate white and western.
The thing that makes it western is similarity of culture, philosophy, religion, social structure, historic exchange and cross-pollination. [0] All of which exist well within the range set by countries that you would have no qualms of calling western.
It is very similar to the rest of Europe on all those axes, in a way that Indian, East Asian, Middle Eastern, Native American, African[1], Polynesian culture, philosophy, and structures are not.
Yes, there are some peculiarities about it that the anglosphere finds alien. The same can be said for any distinct culture within the western sphere.
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[0] Keep in mind that when I am speaking of Russia, my claims cannot be generalized among all of the ~100 ethnic and cultural groups that compose it. Just of the ones that make up the country's political center.
[1] I am speaking from a position of incredible ignorance when I just roll up an entire continent into 'African'. It's quite likely that people who know their ass from their elbow would be able to tell me why I'm wrong to do so.
You are responding to a short quote from the article. This quote works with some assumtions, which are also discussed in the article. It is not naivete, the article is an interpretation of facts, including those when non-violent protests didn't work. We can disagree with the interpretation, but even if I know a way to do it, we just can't do it dealing with this small quote taken out of the context.
The author is "an ancient and military historian who currently teaches as a Teaching Assistant Professor at North Carolina State University" [1].
> Students were not merely arrested — they were gunned down en masse in the streets and even in hospitals
Non-violent doesn't mean peaceful.
People died in our Civil Rights protests. People died in the Indian independence and the Phillipines' People Power Revolution. Each of their leaders were gunned down, and the last won in an autocracy. (Even if you only read the blurb, the state's violent overreaction is part of the parcel.)
> They were provoked by the U.S.
Lots of Americans think the world revolves around us. The truth is we have less influence than we think. We didn't provoke these protests, though we did give them false hope.
> the U.S. secures resource access while leaving the existing system intact, and the student protesters are hunted down
Which opposition figure is being hunted down in Venezuela under Rodriguez?
This article is on my to-read list and I am a great fan of Mr. Devereaux's work. But I also feel like promoting non-violence outside the context of western democracies is misleading and potentially dangerous. Maybe he addresses it somewhere in the article but I have yet to read it so forgive me if he does.
But how does he explain the failure of peaceful revolutions in Belarus or China?
My understanding of social dynamics is that being peaceful only works as long as it gains you more supporters than you lose by government action against the movement. Some governments give in but if not, at some point, the scale tips and violence or surrender are your only options.
In Belarus, I knew they were fucked as soon as I heard that police support the protests by putting down their guns and joining the protesters.
They gave up their ability to use violence and therefore became as irrelevant as the other protesters. They should have kept their guns. They should have tried to use their openly armed protest to incite other armed people to also join. At some point, the potential violence would materialize but hopefully at that point, enough of the armed people would be on the side of the protest.
Maybe the dictator would give up if he saw the situation spiraling out of control (and hopefully be executed as punishment anyway).
Maybe the dictator would try to flee and get caught and executed ("gunned down"). Maybe his bunker would get overrun.
Maybe someone close to him would try to get favor from the protesters and kill him.
But all of those potential outcomes were closed off if people opposing him didn't have enough guns.
> feel like promoting non-violence outside the context of western democracies is misleading and potentially dangerous
The article discusses "efforts, in a sense, directed against the state itself, both violent approaches (what we might call ‘terroristic insurgency’) and non-violent approaches (protest)" (Id.).
> Maybe he addresses it somewhere in the article but I have yet to read it
"The ‘center of gravity’ – the locus of the most important strategic objective – for most insurgencies thus often becomes the political support that sustains a government, be that a body of key supporters in non-democratic regimes or the voters in democratic ones. That body of key voters or supporters, of course, is often not even located in the theater of operations at all: the Taliban ultimately won their insurgency in Afghanistan because they persuaded American voters that the war was no longer worth the cost, leading to the election of leaders promising to pull the plug on the war" (Id.).
> how does he explain the failure of peaceful revolutions in Belarus or China?
"All that said, there are very obviously regimes in the world that have rendered themselves more-or-less immune to non-violent protest. This isn’t really the place to talk about the broader concept of ‘coup proofing’ and how authoritarian regimes secure internal security, repression and legitimacy in detail. But a certain kind of regime operates effectively as a society-within-a-society, with an armed subset of the population as insiders who receive benefits in status and wealth from the regime in return for their willingness to do violence to maintain it. Such regimes are generally all too willing to gun down thousands or tens of thousands of protestors to maintain power.
The late Assad regime in Syria stands as a clear example of this, as evidently does the current regime in Iran. Such regimes are not immune to an ‘attack on will,’ but they have substantially insulated themselves from it and resistance to these regimes, if it continues, often metastasizes into insurgency or protracted war (as with the above example of Syria) because the pressure has nowhere else to go" (Id.).
Thanks, looking forward to reading the full article myself.
Hopefully there's more about how these regimes have failed in the past and how to make them fail in the future. Because AFAICT at that point, violence is the only possibility apart from waiting for the dictator to die from natural causes and the system to disassemble itself as potential successors fight each other.
His is a very idealistic take which weirdly omits that every major example of non-violent protest working to topple a regime involved some foreign super power spending trillions of dollars to wage very much violent wars for the purpose. The insight that he's missing in so many words is that you need to crack the door open just enough for a foreign (super)power to want to come barging in for some reason. Non-violent protests might work as good optics for this, but good optics don't launch rockets on the enemy.
> there are very obviously regimes in the world that have rendered themselves more-or-less immune to non-violent protest.
This sounds like a cop-out to the original blanket statement, or at least this is how I interpret it from your earlier quote. Regimes copy methodologies from others wherever possible and learn from failure to coup-proof themselves faster than the population can keep up. This is why most authoritarian regimes have endured for so long despite many being otherwise failed states, and almost always need some sort of external covert or military intervention to tip the scales.
It's like saying that you can hit the target every time by just meditating. And having a professional take the shot for you.
> insight that he's missing in so many words is that you need to crack the door open just enough for a foreign (super)power to want to come barging in for some reason
No foreign superpower barged into the Civil Rights or the Indian independence movement. Not directly. (If we’re counting hypothetical foreign involvement that’s a geopolitical constant.)
> sounds like a cop-out to the original blanket statement
And no excerpt from an article will do a full reading justice. The article makes no blanket statements, its entire thesis is armed insurgency and protest are strategic twins.
> No foreign superpower barged into the Civil Rights
The presumably US Civil Right movement wasn't happening in an authoritarian state. There's no question that non-violent protest works differently in democratic or well functioning countries. But what's the value of this comparison in practice? Under an authoritarian regime would you recommend writing letters to your representative just because this has been known to work in democratic countries?
> or the Indian independence movement
At least this example is on point. But one good example doesn't generally validate a theory. Look no further than the Syrian civil war you mentioned in your previous comment which required trillions of dollars worth of foreign military intervention. Or the countless failed protests and uprisings all around the world.
> The article makes no blanket statements
It's presented as a "recipe" of sorts, a scenario that flows naturally to the expected and described conclusion when it's anything but. Where's the data to back up such a claim, even if later qualified with a weak "of course it doesn't work all the time"? Any evidence that it works most of the time? A significant even if minor part of the time? Does critical thinking have to take a step back in favor of wishful thinking just because the latter gives you the feels while the former the chills?
> learn from failure to coup-proof themselves faster than the population can keep up
Institutional memory is longer than individual memory. What drove this point home for me was an article about how the police on London can predict whether a protest will turn violent and that they know how to corral people depending on which outcome they want.
But for now, institutions still at least rely on individuals to retain the experience/memories/skills and individuals have their own agency and can leave the organization or die.
>> They were provoked by the U.S. president, who promised support to take on the institutions, but that support never materialized
> Lots of Americans think the world revolves around us. The truth is we have less influence than we think. We didn't provoke these protests, though we did give them false hope.
Sorry, but you're just wrong in this case. The US president absolutely had a huge impact here. Meaning it wasn't just "hope": if he hadn't said and done what he did, the protests and deaths absolutely would not have occurred at the same scale. I'll post an article for reference, but you will find more on this if you look.
> if he hadn't said and done what he did, the protests and deaths absolutely would not have occurred at the same scale
The Guardian interviewing a handful of people, one of whom is a random protester in Iran, doesn’t establish this absolutely in any serious framework. The fact that the protests have recurred should give pause to your hypothesis.
Even setting aside my disagreements with the current President, the US has an atrocious track record when it comes to following through with support. Why on earth would they believe him?
They didn't. It's called a Schelling point to solve the coordination problem. You don't get the luxury of picking and choosing your Schelling points a la carte. They come rarely and when they come you have to act or the window passes.
One, we have no evidence they did. The claim that kids put themselves in front of guns forty days ago and again today because of Trump's tweets is extraordinary.
Two, if they did, it's because they're desperate. I can't imagine Iranians actually want the shah back. But they know rallying around the shah's image pisses off the regime. In that way, it's actually smart to wave his flag around if it means someone on the other side missteps.
No, The Guardian interviewing a single protestor in Iran isn’t an open-and-shut case. We have plenty of people tweeting just about everything from Iran. But we don’t yet know how these protests were formed and led, who did the organizing, et cetera. That means we don’t have the data to build a counter factual with yet, and anyone pretending they do is revealing their credibility.
> No, The Guardian interviewing a single protestor in Iran isn’t an open-and-shut case. We have plenty of people tweeting just about everything from Iran. But we don’t yet know how these protests were formed and led, who did the organizing, et cetera. That means we don’t have the data to build a counter factual with yet, and anyone pretending they do is revealing their credibility.
Have you read the news about this? Do you seriously think there's only one protester claiming this that we have any knowledge of, with one outlet reporting on it? Just because I gave one link to get you started that doesn't mean there isn't more if you look for it.
Nobody ever said "this is an open-and-shut case" either. Nor was anybody expecting a scientific proof. The sentence was "there is no evidence," and I produced one such, and you moved the goalposts.
I'll leave one more link here but you can believe whatever you want, it's a waste of time arguing here.
I remember a old grey beard calling me lazy because I programmed in C++ instead of assembler. Using LLMs has pushed this attitude up a few abstraction layers.
Maybe the take is that those reports that people took a day to write were read by nobody in the first place and now those reports are being written faster and more of them are being produced but still nobody reads them. Thus productivity doesn't change. The solution is to get rid of all the people who write and process reports and empower the people who actually produce stuff to do it better.
The managerial class are like cats and closed doors.
Ofcourse they don't read the reports, who has time to read it? But don't even think about not sending the report, they like to have the option of reading it if they choose to do so.
A closed door removes agency from a cat, an absent report removes agency from a manager.
> The solution is to get rid of all the people who write and process reports and empower the people who actually produce stuff to do it better.
That’s the solution if you’re the business owner.
That’s definitely not the solution if you’re a manager in charge of this useless activity, in fact, you should increase the amount of reports being written as much as humanly possible. The more underlings under you= more power and prestige.
This is the principal-agent problem writ large. As the comment mentioned above, also see Graeber’s Bullshit Jobs essay and book.
Fuck vibe coding. If you want a system that actually stays stable, use OpenSpec (or something like it) to build a closed-loop rig where your requirements drive the code and the code proves it met the requirements.
In one weekend, I built a system that processes OpenSpec requirements into IMGUI automatic testing scripts. It captures screenshots, compiles them into a report, and assigns each image a prompt—essentially a requirement snippet—that tells a multimodal LLM exactly what to look for. Claude is incredible at stitching these types of tools together. Once you have that closed loop, you can let an agent loose on features and just let the code it writes converge on the spec.
The golden rule: If you don't like the results, change the spec. Don't shortcut or "vibe code" a bug away. This keeps the guardrails on. For every feature you add, you have to think about how to validate it automatically. Even a basic smoke test that raises a flag for human review is better than nothing.
Think about the workflow: capture screenshots of all your app workflows and commit them to Git as a baseline. On the next commit, run fast smoke tests. If the images match, you’re good. If they differ, the LLM analyzes the diff against the requirements and proposes a fix for either the code or the spec. Rigs like this used to take teams years to build; now you can build them in a few days with a coding assistant. It’s simple, it’s stable, and it actually scales.
But usually paper and cardboard that has been in contact with food is not recyclable because it contaminates the batch. That's why pizza boxes also cannot go into the cardboard/paper fraction.
The point of paper fast food boxes is not to recycle them but to have no trash in the end as they just burn or rot, all in a sustainable way. In contrast to plastic.
You should almost never ever be writing your own move constructors. Use compiler generated defaults. It's only for very rare specialist classes that you need to override compiler generated defaults. Many times when you think you need to you often don't.
What's with the "accept" only button for cookies on this website. If you drill down through the cookies link it explains in over verbose detail how you can disable tracking for individual cookies and each cookie has a unique disabling strategy even down to a suggestion to install some plugin. This is certainly not in line with EU rules on cookie banners.
That is the decision of artists to sign with a mega corp. Any tom dick or harry can create a Spotify account, load their warbling autotuned ditty written by themselves ( or AI ) on any theme, in any genre and wait for fame or fortune to appear or not. You can take your 70% or whatever the exact number is with no.middle man if you like.
Unfortunately the number of people producing music and the quantity of it is much higher than the number of people able to consume it. And culture is simply network effects. You listen to what your friends or family listen to. Thus there are only a small number of artists who make it big in a cultural sense.
And one of the cheat codes for cracking the cultural barrier is to use a mega corp to advertise for you but if course the devil takes his cut.
Anyway AI is coming for all these mega corps. If you haven't tried SUNO and many of you have it's amazing how convincingly it can crack specific Genres and churn out quality music. Call it slop if you like but the trajectory is obvious.
As a consumer you will get you own custom music feed singing songs about YOUR life or desired life and you will share those on your social media account and some of those will go viral most will die.
(a) you can’t directly upload to Spotify. You need an intermediary in the shape of a distributor. Whether that’s a label or a DIY platform like DistroKid.
(b) Spotify introduced a threshold of 1000 streams before they pay anything. This disincentivises low quality warbling autotuned ditties as they are unlikely to pass that threshold. (It’s more nuanced - you don’t just need 1000 streams from a handful of accounts as that could easily be gamed.)
(c) Suno and Udio have been forced into licensing deals with the major record companies. The real threat will be when we see an open sourced Qwen or DeepSeek style genAI for music creation.
There is a pretty interesting open source music AI named ACE-Step. Currently its quality is at about the Stable Diffusion 1.0 level, and they'll release a new version soon (hopefully in January).
That’s very interesting, thank you! Do you have any info on how it compares to Suno/Udio etc? I don’t know if you saw the news about Anna’s Archive having effectively scraped the majority of the Spotify library. It will be very interesting to see how this impacts on the next generation of generative models for music. Any thoughts there?
> Any tom dick or harry can create a Spotify account, load their warbling autotuned ditty written by themselves ( or AI ) on any theme, in any genre and wait for fame or fortune to appear or not
A 2d sketcher with constraints is kind of similar. For example the equation
A = B + C
Where A, B, C are the lengths of 3 parallel lines. Within the sketcher you can drag the length of any one of those lines and the other two will adjust to keep the constraints.
Yes! I'd really like to make something graphical in this same idea space next. See g9.js for example, or parametric CAD software like FredCAD which kinda does what you said.
Most “AI is rubbish” takes treat it as an open-loop system: prompt → code → judgment. That’s not how development works. Even humans can’t read a spec, dump code, and ship it. Real work is closed-loop: test, compare to spec, refine, repeat. AI shines in that iterative feedback cycle, which is where these critiques miss the point.
What’s tough for me is figuring out where people are realizing significant improvements from this.
If you have to set up good tests [edit: and gather/generate good test data!] and get the spec hammered out in detail and well-described in writing, plus all the ancillary stuff like access to any systems you need, sign-offs from stakeholders… dude that’s more than 90% of the work, I’d say. I mean fuck, lots of places just skip half that and figure it out in the code as they go.
This interpretation reeks of Western naivete. Students were not merely arrested — they were gunned down en masse in the streets and even in hospitals. They were provoked by the U.S. president, who promised support to take on the institutions, but that support never materialized. The likely endgame of this current gunboat diplomacy is similar to Venezuela: the U.S. secures resource access while leaving the existing system intact, and the student protesters are hunted down. In other words, nothing changes for the people demanding reform.
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