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That probably would have been the better move as far as "optics" are concerned, but the Spanish constitution states that this kind of referendum is illegal.

In any case -- I think the ruling party in Spain wanted this to flare up so they could consolidate political support during the next election, since most of Spain is adamantly opposed to Catalan independence.


As a Canadian kid, i never understood why they would let Quebec go through with a referendum. Seems insane to just "divorce" a country (for lack of better words). As i grew up, i thought it was pretty progressive to allow it. As an adult, it seems like the only logical tactical option.

A lot of people will claim that it isn't legal. They will be right. But their constitution wasn't written with modern times in mind. <b>Without violence</b>, how is Spain going to stop Catalan from succeeding? What if Catalan gets violent? How will Spain respond?

There are very few good moves left here for Spain.


> But their constitution wasn't written with modern times in mind.

1978 really wasn't that long ago. I'd call 1978 modern times!


It was coming out of a fascist dictatorship at the height of the Cold War. I’d say the context was pretty far removed from the modern EU, even if it was in living memory.


Counterpoint: it is only a year after their facist dictator died: Germany in 45 and 95 were very different places.


1978-1975=3


> Without violence, how is Spain going to stop Catalan from succeeding?

Empire of Law.


Not true. It states that this kind of a referendum is invalid.


I won't split hairs with you on that, but -- right or wrong -- Spain's Constitutional Court ordered the referendum stopped, and the Spanish government moved to enforce that order.


For better or for worse, there will be no independent Catalonia in the foreseeable future. About 40-50% of Catalans don't support this. The EU doesn't support this, no Western nation supports this (save maybe Russia if you consider them Western -- and even their position is unclear). Furthermore, Spain won't allow it, and they're the main actor in a position to do something about it.

Even if Catalonia somehow manages to enforce its declaration, the economic consequences will be so devastating that they will reverse course in due time.


I can't name a single secessionist movement that got distracted by economy.

If anything, economic troubles reinforce the determination.

Once people take independence as a question of pride, they're extremelly reluctant of considering selling their independence for money.


There have also been few successful secessionist movements that weren't backed by force of arms.

Anyway, I think the calculus is unique in this case. We are already seeing major companies move their headquarters out of Catalonia. Catalonia's independence would mean disruption of access to EU common market benefits and Schengen. Also they couldn't stop smaller provinces from voting to rejoin Spain.


Local militia is often sufficient after you manage to anger locals.

Not sufficient to win maybe, but definitely to mandate some sort of peacekeepers.


Pardon my ignorance, but why would Russia support Catalan independence?


They see it as "payback" for the EU/Nato's support for Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence. Interestingly, Spain is probably the only Western nation that doesn't recognize Kosovo's independence.


Same reason they supported Brexit - it causes instability and weakens the EU.


If I had to guess: (1) Because they feel that it would add legitimacy to the "referendum" they held in Crimea, if only by comparison and (2) just generally to cause trouble in the EU.


Russia seems to like Europe destabilized, in all possible ways.


Divide and conquer.


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