My view is that we spend a lot of time thinking that ai cant do x and y when the wider problem is the short to medium term redirection of capital to tech rather than labour.
Ai might not replace current work but it’s already replacing future hypothetical work. Now whether it can actually do that the job is besides the point in the short term. The way business models work is that if there’s an option to reduce your biggest cost (labour) you’d very much give it a go first. We might see a resurgence of labour if it turns out be all hype but for the short to medium term they’ll be a lot of disruption.
Think we’re already seeing that in employment data in the US, as new hiring and job creation slows. A lot of that will for sure be the current economic environment but I suspect (more so in tech focused industries) that will also be due to tech capex in place of headcount growth
I guess this is just a riff of marcus aurelius flavour stoicism
but ask yourself with regard to every present difficulty: 'What is there in this that is unbearable and beyond endurance?' You would be ashamed to confess it! And then remind yourself that it is not the future or what has passed that afflicts you, but always the present, and the power of this is much diminished if you take it in isolation and call your mind to task if it thinks that it cannot stand up to it when taken on its own.
Off topic but always incredible to remember the Beatles only recorded for what 7-8 years. Incredible what a legacy that is for such a short period of being a band
The irony is that knowing all the other things that were going on during that period, it sure is good that they were not at all artificially promoted for social engineering purposes, and we can totally be sure of that without any shred of doubt or question.
No. These are not unknowable things. CIA, etc. releases and leaks make it possible for even you to know them. Just because most people are simply unaware because they operate in what can only be described as a manufactured state of ignorance, like a "Matrix" or the artificial world of gaslighting and manipulation depicted in 1984, does not make it impossible to know the things that are openly and publicly knowable. What is your excuse for not knowing these knowable things?
I am sure you believe in certain things, you have convictions of some kind, some ideals you espouse. How would you think any of those things could come true if you are like a head of cattle on a range, with no understanding of your state of existing solely for the benefit of the rancher, grazing not because you are cattle that likes grazing, but because the rancher likes you grazing for his own purposes?
Don't worry though, you are not the only one who is really rather aggressively and intentionally self-deluding and seemingly unable and unwilling to see reality, since the soma he is fed is so pleasant and comfortable and warm.
100% correct. Building more in the same locations is simply not feasible physically, economically or considering infrastructure and services. There's plenty of space but we seemingly have no appetite to consider decentralisation, even if all the tools are now in place to make it work.
The resurgence of this seems to be another addition to the sort of culture war that is going on right now around ai v human labour. I suspect this sort of thing will continue to make hay in the press over the coming year
AI slop or slop adjacent content will be the death knell for social media. Social media got soo big because it provided some pleasure to people and like anything that's plentiful, after a while you get sick of it. AI accelerates the volume of content, and also adds even more low value context into the mixer, and will accelerate how quickly society reaches the boredom phase again.
That + regulation means that social media is on the downward curve now I suspect
An interesting addendum is the relatively weak new job creation through the 2nd half of 2025 (partly geopolitcs, partly ai; through the mechanism of diverting capital to tech capex rather than labour).
The economy feels in a tricky position to me. The last couple of days have shown that there are many people/institutions primed to bail out of the stock market at the whiff of any negativity (or things perceived to be negative). I suspect there is likely more bad news before there's good news so the short term looks like it could be a bit of a roller-coaster.
This implies there is underlying fundamental analysis that can be applied to Bitcoin price. There wasn't when it was going up. There isn't when its going down. It has always, and still is, based on pure vibes. The price could be anything.
This implies there is underlying fundamental analysis that can be applied to Bitcoin price.
The underlying fundamental analysis is rejected out of hand by anyone who chooses to speculate in Bitcoin --- the fundamental value may not be $0 but it's safe to say that is way less than it's currently price. Once the mining networks are no longer profitable, the value will be $0.
Bitcoin is not a good currency or a store of value. Fundamentally, it's just another version of a non-fungible token (NTF).
To see where BTC is ultimately headed, just look at NFT's --- aka the Bored Ape Yacht Club. These are now selling for about 4% of their all time high. And they are much more "rare" and "collectible" than Bitcoin.
Just wanted to say that was a nice and very grounded write up; and as a result very informative. Thank you. More stuff like this is a breath of fresh air in a landscape that has veered into hyperbole territory both in the for and against ai sides
Ai might not replace current work but it’s already replacing future hypothetical work. Now whether it can actually do that the job is besides the point in the short term. The way business models work is that if there’s an option to reduce your biggest cost (labour) you’d very much give it a go first. We might see a resurgence of labour if it turns out be all hype but for the short to medium term they’ll be a lot of disruption.
Think we’re already seeing that in employment data in the US, as new hiring and job creation slows. A lot of that will for sure be the current economic environment but I suspect (more so in tech focused industries) that will also be due to tech capex in place of headcount growth
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