Your question is exactly correct. As long as they are real orders, with real risk of being executed, there should be nothing at all wrong with this behavior. If people are so stupid as to move their orders trivially based on others' actions, they deserve what they get.
The reason this gets prosecuted is that it's an easy target for the exchanges to make it look like they care. They are now publicly-traded companies interested in profits first and foremost--not market integrity (which maybe used to be the case--different discussion).
source: 25-year vet of futures markets, the last 10 in HFT; many many millions of orders and executions
what about buy-and-hold investors who don't do anything to deserve that ? Why should they get unnecessary volatility in their portfolios just because some get-rich-quick kids want to treat NYSE like its Mortal Kombat?
> if people are so stupid as to move their orders trivially based on others' actions
Then why show level 2 quotes at all ? Isn't your argument equivalent to "level 2 information is useless"? If not, then people wouldn't be stupid for using it, would they ? Would you trade in a market that only had level 1 quotes ?
They don't get unnecessary volatility unless they're paying attention to the order book all the time. Realized equity volatility is MUCH MUCH MUCH lower in the era of HFT.
Yes, "flash crashes" exist, and normally because of liquidity disappearing. Yes, algos are basically sheep that all bail at the same time. But overall, the net effect is massively beneficial to everyone except lazy traders (which include fund managers who miss the days of getting lots of steak dinners from their favorite brokers).
I'm not arguing against algos or HFT, just spoofing. also I updated my comment to ask about level-2 quote information. If people are stupid for acting on perceived intention of other market participants, wouldn't that make the case that L2 quotes are entirely garbage and should just be removed from the exchange ?
HFT doesn't really do anything for markets since they take very little risk, and that is the purpose of a market... the magic coil will kill your business anyway
I thought true HFT (not short-term momo, etc. where the intention is to actually take risk) had essentially died already, Virtu aside
Not remotely true, many buy and hold investors have stops to limit their losses and/or exit their positions at certain levels. Flash crashes hurt them greatly.
So you'd rather ride the sinking ship and lose all your money as the company goes bankrupt? Are you saying you'd never exit any of your positions no matter how much money you lost?
The stock market cannot go to 0. It is literally impossible. If you are invested in the fortune 500.. and the value went to literally 0.. we are in a zombie Apocalypse. Money no longer has value. So yes I lost all my investment, but I also don't have a job, and a gun is my most valuable asset.
Buy and hold = Buy big index funds (i.e. Fortune 500), and then never ever ever ever sell, until you are ready to spend the money (i.e. draw-downs in retirement).
Trying to go "oh the market lost 20% this week, it is going to 0 soon" is a fools investing.
The market itself cannot go to zero, but individual stocks can. If you're of the view the market can't be beat and investing in index funds is the way to go then your position is fine. If you're of the view where you select the stocks you want to invest in, as a great number of market participants are, then your position if flawed because stocks do go to 0 and as such exiting losing stocks makes sense. Tossing all your money into an index fund is not trading, so you're not even talking about the same thing I am.
Flash crashes massively hurt people who invest in particular stocks because they do often have exit points which get triggered by those crashes. The advice you're giving doesn't apply to these people, they're not the ones just dumping everything into an index fund.
Better to have a loss limiter, than lose it all. Without a stop loss, you can't limit your risk. And yes, exiting at a small loss is the point, it prevents a much bigger loss. Refusing to exit with a loss is how the market takes it all from you.
Retirees might need to liquid a percentage of their portfolio each month to pay their bills. Getting caught in a flash crash can have an effect on them.
In a general sense though I agree that the behavior shouldn't be illegal but am fine with exchanges implementing rules about it. For a trade to occur both the buyer and the seller are getting what they want at a price they both deem acceptable. Phantom orders does not inherently change that.
Keep in mind that you're talking about getting caught in a window that was 34 minutes long. So you'd have to be pretty unlucky, not to mention oblivious, to push through a market sell order at that time.
A senior/experienced person offering potentially-qualitatively-better "stuff" in the realm of something like code isn't the point. I'm sure there are exceptions, but in general no one is saying, "Let things be bad." If something would be a lot better, it's not two cents, it's two dollars.
The point is that when the difference is opinion (or close to), such as matters of color, font, position, etc., there is no reason to tweak things. If you're not going to make a big difference, don't make one at all.
Soros is definitely weird at times, and he is almost always too-certain. But your negative characterization of "billionaire investor" is a disservice to you and him. Rather than learn about the world by selling products or climbing a political ladder, he formed opinions and made bets. Massive, massive respect.
If we throw out, even if momentarily, that there's more to success in the markets than pure luck, then people who have succeeded have done so in a very pure way: you can only make money in trading by being right. When you're right as often and to the extent that someone like Soros is, you have insight that 99.9999% of people don't.
But basically the hypergrowth of the '90s was borrowed from the future. All policy was good if GDP grew. Greenspan noodled on the problem--"irrational exuberance"--but unfortunately became convinced the existing pyramid scheme was working. He's since publicly expressed regret over a ton of those decisions.
If every package was 40 MB on my computer, my distribution would be 30 GB.
More importantly, these 40 MB of code and resources expand to about 400 MB in memory when the application is running, but a global library wouldn't fix that.
>If every package was 40 MB on my computer, my distribution would be 30 GB.
Only if you had installed 750 userland programs. Which are quite a lot. And even then, 30GB for your OS + your third party programs is negligible in even a 265GB flask disk (merely 12% of it).
>More importantly, these 40 MB of code and resources expand to about 400 MB in memory when the application is running, but a global library wouldn't fix that.
Not sure where you got those metrics. Code doesn't "expand" on memory, and binary size it's not a reliable metric of how much memory it will use (a trivial 5 line program that just mallocs can use TB of memory).
For the majority of very large programs, most of the size on disk is assets, not compiled code.
You are correct that code doesn't "expand on memory" but there is no fixed relationship between code size and memory usage. You could certainly write a tiny program that uses a ton of memory pretty easily.
Electron consumes 117MB, npm takes 50MB, and gulp is consuming 114MB, although I don't know how much of this value is shared between the processes (since there are 40+ of them).
I'm not trying to be dense here, but I'm not really sure if you guys aren't trying to be dense, either. I don't know what assumptions we both lack in common.
If it's $862m, last I checked, it will take them about 30 hours to bring in the necessary revenue--if they want to pay out of profits (I'm totally guessing here, what are real net margins on their hardware? 15-20%?), it'll take a couple days.
Even more exaggerated than that. Many families don't earn that across several generations. That's about 17,000 years at $50,000/year. At 40 years of working life, you'd need over 400 people.
I can't upvote this hard enough. OP is right in my mind, but....
I'm straight (and divorced), and we got married for many of the same reasons that LGBT folks want to--it makes sense. Visitation rights, inheritance, tax treatment, etc.
It's unlikely that marriage would be removed as something of concern to lawmakers--has that kind of thing ever happened anywhere, any time, any way?
I respect OP's opinion, but it's ivory tower and we're talking about real people right now.
possibly unnecessary edit: just want to reiterate that I think OP is _right_, it's just not practical, and I'll sacrifice rightness for a rather-large "quick and dirty win".
France has done so. When you get married there, it has to be performed by a government official (usually someone representing the mayor's office). You can have a big church wedding if you want, but the state doesn't recognize it.
Later, France created a very powerful form of non-marriage civil union (the PACS) and saw it become incredibly popular with straight couples.
What? That's exactly the opposite of what parent is suggesting (if I understood correctly): marriage should be a private or religious matter and not a legal institution. Also, non religious marriage has been going on for a long time in many countries (e.g. China) and I don't think France is a notable pioneer in that area.
since some sort of legal status is required for many
purposes in most countries
The idea here is that you get rid of those "many purposes" and treat a married couple like any other people who have decided to spend their lives together.
that is what "married" means. Two people who have entered into a legal contract to spend their lives together and bear certain responsibilities with respect to each other and those in their custody. The religious interpretation of what it means is irrelevant for legal purposes in the US
I see it more as either end (no government involvement, marriage is religious only or no church involvement, marriage is civil only) would satisfy the OP. The middle-ground is the actual opposite to both ends, in that marriage isn't secular or optional.
I have no need to redefine people's religion if they willingly separate it from the state.
This is largely true in the US. I can't speak for how it works in all states, but in most you need an official to marry the couple. The official can be either a religious minister or a government official (such as a Judge or Clerk). From the States point of view, it is not really a religious issue.
There are actually "religious" organizations who for a small fee will give you a certificate to act as a minister to perform a weddings, no dogma required. I believe these are accepted in all states.
In my state of Colorado, a couple can marry themselves without the need for any official from the state or religion. Couples marrying themselves are free to ask a friend to stand in as an informal "official" during a ceremony, but legally, they sign the marriage certificate as having married themselves.
In the US the question of gay marriage is really about the government recognizing the it and giving gays and lesbians the legal rights and responsibilities found in marriage. Most church's will continue to be against it and not perform such ceremonies. Although a few, such as my own Unitarian Universalist have been advocating for gay marriage for decades.
That's the difference between France (and many other European countries such as the Netherlands) and the US: here, the official cannot be a religious minister. You first have to get married by an official from your municipality, and only after that is it legal to get a religious marriage (or anything else that carries the name "marriage" but is not the official government-recognized marriage). Because of the separation of church and state, the official marriage cannot be done as part of a religious service, only in a civil ceremony (which can be very minimal).
That isn't very different at all. The religious wedding ceremony is not legally binding in any way. You must file for a marriage license in your local jurisdiction, and have it completed by your officiant, whoever that may be.
Largely, the same goals are served, but the symbolism is a little different. In the US, the moment when the marriage becomes official can be during a religious service; in the Netherlands, it can't.
That sounds like discrimination in the other direction to me. In US you are given a license and you can choose who officiates that license. If you are not religious, you can have a Judge or a government official officiate your wadding. If you are religious, you are free to use a minister of your choice. This way neither side is discriminated against.
From what you are describing, in EU you HAVE to be married by a government official even if you are religious. That's the wrong attitude to take. To each their own, let the people choose.
From bureaucratic perspective the important part is that the state is aware of the "social contract" two people made between each other and there is a witness who witnessed the "execution" of that contract. That's all. Who that witness is, as long as they are trustworthy, shouldn't matter.
You talk about the EU as if it is one legal jurisdiction. We in fact have 28. In Sweden you can get married either by a government official or by a vicar in the church (but only apparently a vicar of the Church of Sweden).
You right, I should have said Netherlands, because I was replying to that specific example by the parent comment, and after doing some research, it looks like EU is all over the place on this topic.
I've been married in the Netherlands and it's no problem to have the city official be there during your (religious) wedding; you just have to pay them a bit more to show up ;)
In the US, the moment when the marriage becomes official can be during a religious service
Not really. Most folks I know, even the ones who got married in a church, were technically already married when they signed their marriage certificate at city hall.
I won't claim to be a marriage expert, but I don't think things are all that different from the Netherlands.
I wonder what happens if a couple gets a license and then decides not to go through with the ceremony when the time comes. Are they still married? Or do they have to file for a divorce? Are there provisions for an 'annulment' from a legal perspective?
I guess there are actual annulments, but I always thought of those from a religious perspective, not a legal one. I can't fathom that the requirements are the same as presumably the religious one stipulates no intercourss.
My impression is that OP wants the current rights from marriage to be part of civil unions instead, not for said rights to be eradicated outright. The former sounds like a more reasonable position and would address your (and the parent commenter's) concerns.
It is a reasonable position, but a realistic one only if you believe that the opposition to same-sex marriage is the use of the word "marriage" and not a fear-driven hatred of people with a different use for their plumbing. As it happens, I do not; I am entirely certain that "civil unions" being applied to gay people would call down the exact same rhetoric from the exact same people. (I am further certain that the whole "defense of marriage" is only a proxy for not being able to beat the shit out of gay people for funsies anymore. Progress, I suppose.)
Except that reality doesn't agree entirely with that model; a large number of opponents to same-sex marriage have expressed acceptance of same-sex civil unions.
However, your point still stands true in the case of custody rights, since same-sex-marriage opponents tend to claim (rather dubiously) that children raised in such a family tend to experience psychological trauma.
I'm really more-or-less neutral on the matter; it doesn't matter what it's called so long as the rights are equal for everyone. "Marriage" is a good-enough term for that.
Many of the statewide same sex marriage bans also prohibited civil unions. Virginia went so far to prohibit contracts that between same sex partners that established defacto civil unions.
> a large number of opponents to same-sex marriage have expressed acceptance of same-sex civil unions
Some folks express that, yeah. I do not believe it is an honest position in the general case and have suspected since the jump that that's a move of the goalposts designed to appear more reasonable than they are, ready to be dragged back further as they are approached.
What I think happened is that gay rights activists realized they would get better standing to fight for equal rights if they called it marriage. That was a successful tactic and I'm not quibbling with it. But I know there are people who would have been pacified as long as it wasn't the word marriage because I have talked to some of those people. If those people also are afraid of gay people in their hearts, that's terrible - but it actually doesn't equate to opposition to civil unions that are only a boring legal matter as opposed to the sexy, apocalyptic "attack on marriage."
I can't agree. The word "marriage" in particular makes people irrationally excited and start thinking about their church's definition of marriage. So politically, it is a line in the sand. "Defense of civil unions act" doesn't have the same ring and wouldn't get Republicans out to the polls the same way. If, in an alternate history, this could have been made a matter of the government meddling in the issue of marriage as big brother, then we would have seen more input from at least the libertarian side of the right wing if not also the mainstream. As it is, I'm glad about the outcome but now we have another irreconcilable front in the culture war alongside abortion.
How would removing rights granted by marriage and putting them under a civil union, which is what I took the parent to propose, supposed to not trigger irrational excitement of people who support marriage in it's current incarnation? You can argue that people shouldn't care if they just have to get a civil union in addition to their marriage, but we've already brought irrationality with regards to how marriage is defined into the argument as a behavior that we agree exists, so we can't ignore it now.
>"Defense of civil unions act" doesn't have the same ring and wouldn't get Republicans out to the polls the same way.
Because its not coded language designed to appeal to homophobes, unlike actual Republican rhetoric. If it wasn't an "attack on marriage" it would be something else.
Yes, the civil and legal ramifications are important:
- my inheritance: my spouse can get my SS income when I die, my wife inherits my goods by default, etc. Now gays get the same treatment.
- taxes: are different for married and non-married folks. Now gays get the same treatment.
IOW "follow the money".
This ruling will change how much money the government pays to its citizens and how money is passed among its citizens (after marriage and death in particular). But nobody ever discussed the ramifications of this and the entire discussion was based around a bunch of bombast.
Actually now ANY TWO people can get the same treatment. Two straight males can get married. If I was single and I had a friend with good benefits, I'd make a case to get married... The savings on insurance and taxes we'd share. Now if millions did this, the cost of those benefits will go up drastically.
How is this any different to a male and female friend better married just for tax benefit? Its not widespread now, why would it become widespread when people of the same sex can do it?
Feel free. And realise the massive financial risks you are taking by being legally tied to someone. Especially someone who does not have the same kind of emotional bond to you as a genuine spouse hopefully would.
A prenup is insufficient unless you're also in a legal environment where a spouse can not financially make both of you jointly and severally liable for a debt, for example.
It doesn't help you if the other party doesn't get any of your stuff in a divorce if you're still saddled with debts they took on while you were married.
There may be places where this is possible, but I doubt it'd be worth it once you factor in the cost of sufficiently safeguarding yourself, unless there are massive amounts of money involved.
Nothing. Except I tended to hang out with and lived mostly other straight men. I'd probably have been able to convince one to do prenup and marry for strictly platonic income and tax planning reasons. See comment above or below related to prenups and no fault divorces.
I think our wires got crossed here. I'm arguing against the idea that we should change the name to civil unions and make it legal, as opposed to just legalizing equal "marriage".
I certainly don't care what it's called, as long as there's something that confers those rights.
That said, I do object to the oft-stated remark that marriage has historically been a civil rather than religious institution, primarily because historically that's been a distinction without a difference. Such remarks tend to take a separation of church and state for granted when, in reality, both those things were very frequently conflated until maybe the last few centuries, and even then it was a very gradual shift in practice.
Hell, church and state are still one and the same in much of the modern world (see also: significant portions of the Middle East, the United Kingdom, various others). Implying that this was any less prevalent historically is, well, silly.
Can you support that claim? I always thought it was rooted in religion, and the practice dates back to a time when every person and thing was religious since we really knew no better, as far as I'm aware.
But that's a silly and dishonest argument because there are plenty of areligious hetero marriages. If separation of church and state is anything more than lip service, statutory marriage isn't an explicitly religious institution. Not to mention that religions exist that have no problem with gay marriage.
I'm still waiting for an actual reason to rename the operation be forced to edit a few thousand statutes and negotiate or renegotiate a bunch of international agreements.
If I changed my name to 'fuckwad' people would treat me differently. Half of people's biases and thought sequencing is a result of simple word choice, not analysis of meaning.
Addendum: If this weren't the case, nobody would bother with propaganda or marketing.
