But the SPCX float is a small fraction of its overall shares. So it will end up being around 0.08% to 0.12% of the weight of the SP500 [1]. Nothing to write home about.
Personally, I do think SpaceX is overvalued at these proposed IPO numbers and I will trade accordingly. So should anyone else who is confident and competent at taking appropriate market positions.
Technically I think this would be fairly straightforward. You could keep the index fund and then short the stock you believe is overvalued, to the degree it's weighted in the index fund. That would give you stock market exposure equivalent to the index without the company you don't believe in.
But I would strongly advise you to NOT DO THIS.
The above position makes it explicit that your thesis involves shorting a stock that could go through the roof in value. That emphasizes what a risk you're taking with your thesis. If your typical investment approach is to just buy index funds, then carry on just buying index funds and let the market do its work.
By the way, if SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI etc were to be excluded from the indices, then professional investors would just start a trade the inverse of the one I outlined above - i.e. they'd start shorting your index fund to the extent it was underweight in those companies, in order to profit off the exclusion of those tickers from it.
If you're in this for the long term (which I assume you are given this is your 401k), don't try to second-guess the market short-term.
£10,000 per year for Mr Darcy is 10,000 gold sovereigns per year. A gold sovereign at spot price today is about $1,100. So that’s over 10 million dollars per year in gold-equivalent wealth. Plenty to maintain his estate with.
Alternatively, £10,000 is 200,000 sterling silver shillings per year (20 shillings per pound) for him. A sterling shilling today is about $13.50 at spot price. So that’s $2.7million per year in silver-equivalent wealth. Still plenty!
Data centers in space may or may not make sense (personally I'm quite skeptical) but the objections in the article certainly don't make sense.
1. The only reason there are 15,000 satellites in space is because SpaceX launched about 9,500 of them (Starlink is 65% of all satellites) on their semi-reusable Falcon 9. If fully-reusable Starship pans out, they will be launching satellites at 10x the rate of Falcon 9 at the very least.
2. You don't need to upgrade the satellites, you just launch new ones. The reason data center companies upgrade their servers is because they can't just build a new data center to hold the new chips. But satellites in space are a sunk cost, so just keep using the existing satellites while also launching new ones.
3. Falling solar panel costs decreases the power costs for both earth-based and space-based, but they're more efficient in space so the benefit would be proportionally greater there.
As I said, I'm skeptical too, but let's be skeptical for good reasons.
A few additional items to rebut the lack of info in this Article:
- SpaceX just requested a license to launch up to a million satellites.
- the satellites already have some incredible anti collision software, which I believe Elon has now open sourced.
- the cost to launch 1 kg to space has dropped by a factor of 10 in the past few years and is currently less than $1000. It's perfectly reasonable to estimate that over the next 10 years the cost could drop by another factor of 10, if not more, particularly if the heavy rockets are reusable.
3. The falling costs won’t benefit space as much. The cost of sending mass to space will still be a big factor in the space solar panel costs. Much of the reason why solar is getting cheaper is not the panels themselves, but due to innovations that reduce installation costs. Those don’t apply to space (outside of the already assumed reductions in sending mass to space to make this viable)
Yes, launch cost is the crux of the matter. My skepticism is based on whether they’ll be able to get launch cost low enough and launch cadence high enough. SpaceX has shown the ability to get launch costs dramatically lower and cadence dramatically higher, but it’s not a slam dunk that those curves will continue to the levels needed for this idea to work.
2) it is extremely common to add storage to existing servers. Only slightly less; RAM, CPUs etc. not to mention how often it is cost-effective to replace broken components.
Your explanation of finding a surface to separate good reasoning traces from bad reasoning traces in a high dimensional space worked as a great framing of the problem. It seems though that the surface will be fractal - the distance between a good trace and a bad trace could be arbitrarily small. If so then the work required to find and compute better and better surfaces will grow arbitrarily large. I wonder if there is a rigorous way to determine if the surface is fractal or not.
Darkness is the absence of light. In this usage light would represent a moral agent, and so darkness is its absence - either no morality or no agency or both.
My wife is pregnant and, because the nearest maternity unit is 1hr45mins drive away, we're going to rent a place near it around the due date. This just gave me a confidence boost about what dates to be there. Thank you!
If you strip out the AGI hype then this just sounds like OpenAI is now moving to monetizing their tech. This makes sense for them but probably not for the philanthropists who originally backed them.
Sadly for them, AGI is metaphysically impossible - this will be realized eventually but a lot of waste and possibly harm will happen first.
We are not just super sophisticated machines, so the fact that we can think doesn’t tell us anything about what’s possible for machines. But philosophy does - and it tells us you can’t get mind from matter, no matter what configuration you put it in.
I'm a believer that we are super sophisticated molecular machines, embodied in matter.
Can you provide some material that supports your claim that AGI is metaphysically impossible - I always like hearing from people with views opposite to myself.
I'm skeptical his claims are substantive. As with all things philosophy there are competing and supporting theories, and with this age-old question of AGI I doubt the field is as conclusive on the matter as he believes.
I used to be a believer of the theory that we are super sophisticated machines. When I read some of the philosophy on the subject I changed my mind. I now believe there must be some immaterial component to our minds.
There’s a lot to read out there on this subject, but I found expositions of the philosophy of Aristotle and Aquinas to be the clearest and most convincing for me. Lots of different books and articles exist on them both - pick one that sounds like it suits your style of understanding.
> I used to be a believer of the theory that we are super sophisticated machines. When I read some of the philosophy on the subject I changed my mind.
What philosophy? Be specific
> I now believe there must be some immaterial component to our minds.
What specific points or ideas made you believe that?
> There’s a lot to read out there on this subject
So provide some examples, be as specific as possible
> but I found expositions of the philosophy of Aristotle and Aquinas to be the clearest and most convincing for me
These two wrote a lot on many subjects, can you be specific on the points that convinced you that we are not super sophisticated machines. Don't vaguely point at a couple of authors, we are talking about a very specific idea.
> Lots of different books and articles exist on them both - pick one that sounds like it suits your style of understanding.
If there's lots then cite some examples, or better yet, rather than vaguely pointing at a book, (which is only marginally more useful than vaguely pointing at an author) let's discuss the specific ideas exactly.
I found “Aristotle for Everybody” by Mortimer J. Adler to be really great. The topic of the immateriality of the intellect is covered in the last few chapters, but the rest of it is great stuff too.
Sounds like @benl has been afflicted with the "Cartesian wound". Such dualistic thinking and ideas like free will are ~hard for us to work through. But perhaps the more important, and immediately tractable, question @benl brings up is what our approach should be? Should we make an AGI or better IA, Intelligence Augmentation?
You might be more familiar with the field than me, but my understanding is that’s Dennett position is not well-thought-of in the fields of philosophy of mind and metaphysics. At the very least there are very good cases made that unpick his position very carefully. They’re not all Cartesian views - I grasp the Aristotelian views best myself.
That’s right - we have minds therefore we must be more than just matter.
I used to think the opposite, but reading the philosophy on the subject changed my mind. There are a lot of different takes on the topic, but what most added up for me was the philosophy of Aristotle and Aquinas. There are many great expositions of their work out there.
AGI in the sense of robots that can do the jobs people can, design better robots and so on would be a game changer in itself. You can leave to philosophers to argue if they have true feelings and that.
I'm a quantum maximalist: the brain is just the antennae, receiving and broadcasting. Attention itself cuts (slices) through the quantum soup, and as a result, these mind-forms appear.
I don't know the answer but that some people think they do upsets me. I definitely think we should try but right now mostly what we do is make a rock DO so I'm not seeing the leap yet.
Well, machine is a name for a stance of analysis, there are no machines in the real world (which is not to say that there no are mechanical linkages) only in our minds.
FWIW, consciousness has no properties and so cannot be studied scientifically.
However, consciousness can be explored experientially, i.e. two conscious beings can merge and experience self as one being. (See Charles Tart's experiment with mutual hypnosis.)
Yes, I used to hold that view too. But actually it turns out that the null hypothesis is that mind is at least partly immaterial, because all attempts to demonstrate the opposite philosophically are fraught with difficulty. I’ve found that the thought of Aristotle and Aquinas, when explained by modern philosophers, best explains to me why that’s the case.
I’ll try because you asked me to, but i think I’ll do a bad job. You’ll get a much better understanding by reading on the topics of philosophy of mind and metaphysics. Here goes, though:
1. Purely immaterial things exist. Think of mathematics or the laws of logic or physics - these things exist as ideas or concepts, not arrangements of matter.
2. Some abstract concepts cannot be embodied in matter at all. For example, you can make a shoe, you can draw a shoe, but you can’t draw shoe-ness. You can understand and reason about what makes something a shoe in the abstract, but you can only make or draw an individual shoe.
3) the mind contains these purely immaterial things when we think about and reason about them.
4) If we can use the abstract concepts, but the abstract concepts can’t be embodied in matter, then the mind must be at least partly immaterial in order for the concepts to be in our mind.
I hope that helps a but please don’t rely on my exposition of the case - a real philosopher would do it justice.
The Crown of Thorns is kept in the treasury at Notre Dame and was due to be displayed all day this Friday for Good Friday. How it ended up there is an interesting tour of European history in itself. Let's hope that it has been saved.
Personally, I do think SpaceX is overvalued at these proposed IPO numbers and I will trade accordingly. So should anyone else who is confident and competent at taking appropriate market positions.
1. https://www.investmentnews.com/practice-management/spacexs-i...
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