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> You can't keep marginalizing people and expecting stability.

People who shoot someone or throw bombs at someone even though that someone never did something against them, should be marginalized. In prison.


Okay

> Netanyahu and Putin are two war criminals according to International Court of Justice.

You mean the ICC, not the ICJ. The latter is a separate body that handles disputes between states.

Both have warrants for arrest by the ICC but note that neither Putin nor Netanyahu have been tried or convicted by the International Criminal Court.


This is fantastic news!

It is. This is fairly significant. Congratulations to the Hungarian people.

> In time they'll unseat English as the global language.

The data strongly suggest otherwise.

English’s dominance is growing, with over 80% of online content in English.

There are 1.5 billion English speakers vs 1.1 billion Mandarin speakers. In third place is Hindi at 600 million, followed by Spanish at 560 million and French at 280 million.

86% of Mandarin speakers are native speakers while only 25% of English speakers are native speakers. The ratio for Mandarin has been holding steady while for English more and more non-native speakers are learning it.

Not only is Mandarin mostly spoken by native speakers as the ratios above illustrate, the Chinese birth rate is dropping.

So no, not only is English the world’s true lingua franca, it is extending its lead.


I'm always open to being wrong.

A smart African student might decide to learn Chinese as well as English.

A smart Chinese student may learn English, French among others.

We'll see what happens in the next 30 years.


No, he started predicting in his 2005 book, based on the “Law of Accelerating Returns”, yielding exponential growth in computing capacity.

Timeline from here on out:

2029: AI passes a valid Turing test and achieves human-level intelligence

2030s: Technology goes inside your brain to augment memory; humans connect their neocortex to the cloud

2045: The Singularity, when human intelligence multiplies a billion-fold by merging with AI


Data for AI training is increasingly synthesized.

I was more thinking about data to augment inference. Google already "knows" its users.

> The frontier models stole the whole internet

What does that even mean?


> LLMs aren't out there thinking about stuff in their spare time.

Agentic changes the calculus.


Explain how? Even if you are using crons or heartbeats to reactivate the model they are still dependent on context windows that are quite small. With frontier models I still have to remind them how stuff works, stuff they forgot or focused on the wrong thing, etc.

Also every AI company is motivated to have us use their models _just enough_ to want to pay for them, but not more than that.


The real issue is that oil filters and gears are really just legacy design. EVs don’t need them.

So, similar with software design, as in other fields, often a problem goes away when you ask a different question.


You may not know this, but EVs also have oil filters and gears. They also having cooling systems. What they don't have is an engine (they have motors). But the motors have their own cooling system, and the gears have their own oil system with filters.

Every moving part - especially gears -- needs to be oiled, and whenever you are oiling metal on metal contact such as in gears, you are going to want an oil filter to catch worn metal debris, to remove it from the oil.

The difference between EVs and ICE vehicles is not that only one of them uses oil to reduce friction, but that the oil service intervals on EVs are so long that regular oil maintenance is not needed, you do it every 60,000 miles or whatever the manufacturer recommends, so it's out of mind. But that doesn't mean it doesn't require service.

Once EVs have been around for a while and there is an established market for used EVs, the people who buy them are going to want to change the oil to add more life to the EV. So it's something that is dealt with in the long-life maintenance, not the monthly maintenance. But when you do the oil service, you will curse Tesla for needing to drop the battery in order to do it, and all of a sudden you will care where things are placed and how accessible they are.

Here is a nice video -- I follow Sam Crac as one of my favorite automotive youtubers - and he picked up an old Tesla and did an oil service for it. It's a nice watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0ZNHKjHalY


EVs have gears and gear oil in their drive units. There is a reduction gear that needs lubrication, as well as the differential.

They actually will need oil changes starting anywhere from the 50k to 100k mile mark.

Here's the maintenance guide with pictures walking through changing the oil and filter for the Rear Drive Unit (RDU) in a Tesla Model S:

https://service.tesla.com/docs/ModelS/ServiceManual/Palladiu...


EVs also have consumable parts which it would be incredibly annoying to place in nonsensical locations.

The obvious one is the battery, and you can argue that modern EVs have batteries so expensive that when they are dead the car becomes scrap, and - sure, whatever.

But EVs still have: cabin air filters, coolant, brake fluid, lubricants in various places (although granted, these lubricants will mostly last the service life).

At the end of the day, as long as you have a car which moves, and not a statue, it will have things which wear out and which should be easy to replace.

Engine oil and oil filters are just an example.


> Art is always in the eye of the beholder.

I like to think of fine art as a subjective human expression to stir emotion.


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