It most likely does not recognize the sign. Last I saw, after years of furious development they were still unable to recognize standard "Do Not Enter", "Road Closed", and "One Way" signs in the US. Here is a video [1] from a week ago where it fails to recognize a clearly visible "Do Not Enter" sign with "One Way" road indications.
You should have shown the original video and not the one from Dan O'Dowd. He is not interested in pedestrian safety in any way, he is doing this only to promote his own company, Green Hills Software. He didn't have any issues with Tesla until it stopped using his software.
Ah yes, consistently, correctly, and truthfully highlighting serious safety defects and unacceptable design oversights for years in the products of a trillion dollar company with a rabid fanbase well known for running smear campaigns is "not interested in pedestrian safety".
I imagine everybody relishes the opportunity to get smeared by entirely false accusations by Tesla promoters with a conflict of interest. You can tell the Tesla promoters running the smear campaigns are worth listening to because their smears keep getting disproved by video evidence.
Please point at any clearly visible video evidence that their whistleblowing is inaccurate. No "shaky cam" "Bigfoot" evidence where you point at something blurry and falsify a claim to fit your desired narrative.
Your job would have been a lot easier if any of those Tesla Promoters accepted the Dawn Project's offer to attempt the tests themselves with their own Tesla's and their own cameras giving them the perfect platform to debunk the Dawn Project's claims. Weird how they all chickened out on that slam dunk.
In this case, the whistleblowing was done by DirtyTesla (as credited by Dan). Respect to him for that. Dan has created proven fake videos where Tesla is allegedly unsafe, but got caught. So he has lost his credibility.
It's very important to call out these issues AND to do it honestly.
Nope. Those accusations were proven false and the people who made them have lost all their credibility. It was just a smear campaign by Tesla promoters so effective that here you are parroting it against reality to protect a trillion dollar company that actively lies and promotes illegal and dangerous behavior. They really outdid themselves with that smear campaign.
If you disagree, I presented the criteria for evidence needed to support your case. Remember, no shaky cam.
I think that is worse. There are only a few hundred traffic signs in use in Europe and even I could write a supervised learning model in an afternoon that could recognize all of them with very low uncertainty. And if I had Tesla budget I could easily have a tiny portion of my workers label enough data in another afternoon.
If this is true, and Tesla does not do this, that means that somewhere up in Tesla’s chain of command somebody told their workers not to do this. That is, somebody at Tesla made the decision that Tesla cars should not be able to recognize all the traffic signs. If that is the case, this person should be held criminally liable and Tesla cars should be pulled off the market (and the roads) by regulators who are (or should be) concerned about consumer (and road) safety.
You went from ignoring Hanlon's razor in one comment straight to duning Kruger's in your next.
Seems like you just don't like musk and have to find a bad reason...
Personally I like the idea of ideas > event > people...
If I'm wrong on this post and you are really that capable I'd suggest you go work for comma.io because self driving cars/vehicles is definitely in top 5 of best upcoming inventions.
Really, your first instinct is: "The journalists are engaging in a baseless smear campaign."
The video evidence clearly demonstrates it engaging in a clearly signed illegal maneuver that it should never have even begun. Furthermore, your mischaracterization of the video is significant. The car straightens out having crossed the pedestrian walkway clearly indicated on the dash screen. The dash screen clearly indicates the vehicle intending to continue to travel on the bike-only road.
In addition, this is Tesla's own official curated video [1]. Tesla is the one who decided that failure to obey clearly indicated signs and engaging in a illegal maneuver is the best representation of their product they could muster.
No, as can be clearly seen from the video, it is doing a right turn onto a road where the only lane is a full-size lane with a sign indicating that cars are not allowed to use that road in that direction.
Okay, so in 14 years they replace all cell phone service in the US achieving 6% of the revenue goal. Just have to find another 15 “all cell phone service in US” and do it all in 14 years and we are golden.
Just add a whole Apple worth of revenue yearly and they can just barely make it.
Ah yes, the horrible anti-feature of IP fragmentation strikes again.
Pair it with the anti-solution of dropping large packets instead of truncating them and we get our perfect storm of bad design that is MTU incompatibility and modern MTU discovery.
Of course they do. Have you literally never run into a problem that the average developer can not solve, but a expert can solve? That is infinity times more productive.
Even assuming that maybe the average developer could come to learn how to solve the problem you can easily see the gap between taking months to learn how to solve a problem versus already knowing how to solve it on short notice being over 10x.
Large productivity differences are mostly a function of differences in capability than differences of speed in solving rote problems easily within their capabilitys.
> Have you literally never run into a problem that the average developer can not solve, but a expert can solve?
In what time frame?
> Even assuming that maybe the average developer could come to learn ... already knowing how to solve it on short notice being over 10x.
10x? I'm not convinced. 10x is a pretty big increase, as illustrated above.
Clearly I understand the gap, I explicitly mentioned it. I mentioned a month's work is quite valuable. I'm not the one diminishing that value, you are.
I can totally buy instances of 10x improvement, but that's not what we're talking about and not how anyone is using the term. Everyone is talking about sustained output. No one gives a shit if you're 100x for five minutes but 0.5x the rest of the time.
Your critique isn't wrong, per say, but it is a non sequitur to the conversation.
I doubt even a staff level engineer is even a 10x above the junior. Will the staff level engineer write better code and faster? Hell yeah they will! But will it take a junior 10 years to write the same software a staff level does in a year? Maybe. But if it does I'm not convinced they're even trying, so not a fair comparison. 10 years is a lot of time. A lot of time to learn, refactor, or even build the damn thing from scratch a few dozen times.
Seriously, 10x improvements are actually wild.
But why dismiss a 10% gain as if it's nothing? Why is the smaller number bad?
Is the need for the number to go up so strong that we don't care how divorced from reality it is?
It doesn't mean more work it often means creativity.
For example when I was an EE I worked at a company that had spent nearly 8 months, 50k on consultants, and easily 3 peoples full time for a lot of effort plus the testing side.
I swapped that 800$ board out for essentially a lightbulb. Did identical work <50$ and was more reliable. That simple change was easily a 10x improvement if not more because the logistics of that one board was absurd.
I'm proud of that EE work but code is identical. I would never call myself a 10x developer but I've wiped entire code bases more than once.
Maybe I have "10x" moments? But to say this isn't a real phenomenon means you're in a super structured and political enviroment.
I probably had that kind of 10x moment yesterday. I spent 2.5 hours analysing a feature request and I eventually advised my customer to think very carefully about it: it might solve a problem but the implementation time is going to be long, even with an AI, because of actual development and the time we will spend in testing it. Furthermore the new infrastructure will have recurring costs higher than what it saves. My advice is not to proceed. 2.5 hours vs 25 or more. 10x.
My point is that these 10x moments aren't sustained. When we're talking about a "10xer" we're talking about someone over a longer period of time.
For "in the moment"s and short term projects, 10xers certainly exist. There's definitely things I can do in a week that would take juniors more than 10. But for bigger projects? Can I do in a month what a junior cannot in 10 months? Can I do in 6mo what a junior cannot do in 5 years? I'd really doubt the latter and the amount of things I can do in a month that a junior can't do in 10 are a whole lot smaller than what I can do in a week that they can't do in 10
> Can I do in a month what a junior cannot in 10 months? Can I do in 6mo what a junior cannot do in 5 years?
I briefly worked at an organisation where I was consistently and sustainably able to ship in two month blocks what other teams of 3-6 engineers at that organisation could not successfully deliver at all. I would consider myself around 75th percentile productive compared to the industry, but in that specific organisation I was at least 10x as productive as the median engineer - regardless of their seniority.
I think engineers tend to form clusters where everyone is roughly as intelligent/competent/productive as each other. Outliers tend not to join the cluster, or they leave quickly. I've seen this happen at the level of a company, but also in larger engineering orgs at the level of a team or group. High performers don't stick around when their median colleague is a low performer and vice versa.
Perhaps you've had the good fortune to work mainly in organisations with a high competency floor. Looking around, you may not see anyone who's 10x as productive as anyone else, but maybe you're ignoring that everyone is in the 90th percentile of the industry.
Once was part of a team where a mid level guy spent a year building/heavy maintenance of some catastrophe of a solution. They literally had the end users copy and pasting hundreds of commands from a generated excel sheet of a command per core (shudders). I spent ~2wks on a different architecture that was a massive improvement we abandoned their code base. He quit like 4 months later to join some faang. Granted that 2wks of work was on top of a distributed cloud infra that took me 6 months to build.
So yes, a skilled dev might skip entire months of work someone else would make.
What you seem to be describing is a companies skilled engineer designs something and passes down the spec. The guy making the spec is the 10x guy. For large projects it's even more pronounced. The article literally described someone who wasn't skilled they simply knew how to smooze the MBA's and a company with poor engineering leadership.
> a problem that the average developer can not solve, but a expert can solve?
Yes these exist. The rate at which they exist is grossly exaggerated. Every company likes to think that their problems are special snowflakes. Nothing could be further from the truth.
In these discussions we try to solve for a 0.00001% problem by claiming it's common to encounter.
I think the myth/claim of a 10x developer is true but only relative to said rockstar engineer's immediate environment.
Put simply, the 10x developer is a 10x because they've spent ~10x more time immersed in the problem domain than the average developer.
What they do is more sleight-of-hand than Tony Stark engineering his way out of a terrorist cell. If 10x engineer takes a weekend to solve a problem that has stumped the team for a month, it's because he's collected the necessary context to solve the problem over the course of their long career; doesn't mean the answer didn't need to be synthesized, but they already had the raw materials in their cupboard. They have a giants' shoulder to stand on because they bothered climbing. They didn't derive anything from first principles; no one prototyped an Iron Man suit from scrap contraband.
The implication being anyone can be a 10x engineer in the right environment.
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Allow me to carry my own throne with an anecdote, believe what you will: once upon a time, Engineering Manager had the brilliant idea to create a modular system for our main product, the pitch being that we can outsource feature development to contractors while keeping team costs down as we only need to maintain a lean modular system. They tested the idea on a couple of easy scope projects which were successful.
Then came the big test. Three projects outsourced to a team of four contractors. These projects were far more complex than the first two: lots of state management and integration with other systems. In due time deadline neared and the contractors had a very pretty UI that just needed to be wired in. I got pulled in to see the projects home. It was supposed to be easy if not for the Pareto Principle. Relationship with the contractors soon soured as they bailed, showing us that they've technically already accomplished the project on their billable hours spreadsheet. We, the regular team, just needed to deploy the code they turned in but the deployment is none of their concern apparently.
That's when I had to roll-up my sleeves, got dirty with their spaghetti code. The way I see it, the contractors fell on the part where they had to integrate with other systems because said systems were legacy, i.e., created before the idea of the Lean Modular Main System. Honestly, even I didn't know exactly how to work with them but, crucially, I knew how to get answers when the going got tough. I knew how to quickly figure out what I didn't know because as a regular employee I knew things beyond first principles.
In the end, two out of the three projects deployed. They were only a couple weeks late. IIRC the third one only failed because it really ran out of time budget. Upper Management was not happy but Engineering Manager stuck out his neck for me, for which I am genuinely grateful. I didn't get exactly the coveted 10x wording out of him but he pointed out that I released 2/3 whereas a team of four couldn't even release one.
That's not entirely accurate of course. I could code you up a decent web frontend but I could not, for the life of me, get all those pretty UI animations to work even if it's my only way out of a terrorist cell.
> the 10x developer is a 10x because they've spent ~10x more time immersed in the problem domain than the average developer.
Your ratio is off. This doesn't grow linearly, it grows exponentially. It probably takes more than 10x the experience/time to get to 2x in performance.
> If 10x engineer takes a weekend to solve a problem that has stumped the team for a month
This is very rare in the real world. There are also alternative explanations you're ignoring:
1. Luck. Seriously, do not underestimate luck, it plays a major role in your life[0]
2. Fresh eyes: You're not burdened with all the noise of the past engineering[1]
3. Getting to leverage the existing work. You have a new prior, you know to not think through the problem like the rest of the team has been.
Those are two obvious explanations but there are more. The reality is that it is going to be some combination along with the experience that you suggested.
> I didn't get exactly the coveted 10x wording out of him
I do not want to imply in the least that you shouldn't be proud of your accomplishments. You absolutely should! But is this "10x" or actually smaller? A few weeks late you said, so how long do you think it would have taken had you not been so skilled? 20 weeks? More? If it really would have taken 20 weeks then yes, you are a 10xer and call me wildly impressed.
But mind you, I'm also saying that being a "2xer" is wildly impressive. I'm even saying that being a 1.1xer is impressive (because it is!). So I'm really not trying to diminish your accomplishments. The feeling of pride you should have for your accomplishments shouldn't be diminished because you aren't calling yourself a "10xer". That's not what's being said here.
Plus, my whole point is about sustained output. 10x and even 100x certainly exist in short tasks. I mean I can certainly produce a hello world program in python 100x faster than someone that doesn't know how to program. But over longer periods of time this gets to be much harder. Again, I don't want to diminish your pride, the story you explained is not a short task.
[0] That isn't to say that skill doesn't matter, it very much does. But luck is pretty far up there. It is behind skill in importance, but there's not a single (or even 2) factor that controls your life.
[1] This isn't luck, you can control this too. Stuck on a problem? Walk away. Go for a walk. But come back.
1. Any company handling PII must prominently advertise a amount of money per user they must pay in cash in the event of a data breach. This is a mandatory minimum payment and does not preclude subsequent lawsuits on specific damages.
2. Any claim of security or privacy must prominently advertise that amount earlier and in larger text than any other statement: “We provide 25 cents of security.”
3. In the event of data breach, your first notification must inform all affected partys and you immediately become tentatively liable for your data breach amount. Any affected party not notified in the initial disclosure receives 3x damages in the event their data was lost.
4. You may disclose to partys that you now know they are not affected. In the event that their data was lost they will receive 3x damages.
5. In the event of a data breach, you must issue your first notification within 1-7 days of when you discover it or are informed of it. Failure to do so constitutes a first notification to 0 partys, so you become liable for 3x damages to all users.
6. A data breach of any vendor you supplied PII to constitutes a breach.
1 and 2 align marketing with capability. 3 and 4 prevent underreporting. 5 prevents late reporting. 6 prevents diffusion of responsibility or the creation of scapegoat entitys and incentivizes only using vendors who properly track data provenance so their lawyers can tell your lawyers your users are unaffected.
Except in [0] the birth rate is relatively flat between 1950-1970 and then suddenly starts a rapid reduction. Developed countries have already been industrialized for 100 years by that point. The modern work day and access to many modern fun and rewarding activitys have been available for literal decades. Mass urbanization already occurred. Many of the modern household appliances have been in use for decades. Antibiotics, vaccines, and childhood mortality had already been dramatically reduced to within the vicinity of modern norms. In developed countrys female workforce participation, education, and political activity were material with no clear fundamental shift in those metrics in the 1960s-1970s.
But you know what did occur in the 1960s-1970s? The invention and popularization of the birth control pill. Here is the US birth rate [1]. Rising from 1950-1960 then a sudden and precipitous drop in the 1960s until stabilization in the 1970-now range. This coincides with the global drop in fertility rate. How about Germany [2]? Growth from 1950 to late 1960s then a sudden drop until stabilization in the mid 1970s. France [3]? Flat and high until mid-1960s then a sudden drop until stabilization in 1980. UK [4]? Growth from 1950 to mid 1960s then a sudden drop until stabilization mid 1970s. Australia [5]? Growth until 1960 then drop until stabilization in 1980.
Every single developed country in the world is flat to growing and then sees a sudden and rapid decline in birth rate just a few years after mass availability of the birth control pill until stabilization around the time that the pre-birth control cohort ages past reproductive years. The birth control pill is so new that the reproductive cohort that lived prior to its invention is still alive.
My hypothesis is that fertility is just a function of access to cheap, effective contraceptives. The fertility rates we see today are the natural rates when pregnancy is a choice.
I think that is it. We have somewhat of a confirmation with Romania and Decree 770, which led to an increase in children (though that might have been temporary I'm not well versed in the history). I think there is no inherent desire to have children or if there is, it is far weaker than a lot of people think. And it makes sense, evolutionary. If you have a desire for self-preservation, a desire for the preservation of those close to you, a desire to nurture the young (once they are there, which also shows in seeing 'cuteness') and a desire for sex, then you don't really 'need' a desire for children directly, because the children will naturally follow from that chain of desires. It just fits with how evolution seems to works (I think at least), which often causes these daisy chains of things that work intermittently to cause something else.
Thinking along those lines, a desire to "have children" may have even been bad - no built in stopping point. New child every year, resources overwhelmed...
There was a science fiction story I read about that once, an alien species that would die if they didn't give birth every year. I think they tried everything from hormone modification to mass baby dump pits but they couldn't maintain a stable society for longer than about fifty years when overpopulation killed everyone, so thrt just gave up.
Actually more than one, because I also read one about scientists deciphering messages from aliens who used the word for "baby eater" to mean "good"
The first one sounded familiar and I've definitely read the plot summary of this before, but not the book so I don't know if the rest of that description applies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mote_in_God%27s_Eye
> if they arent on birth control they are more likely to engage in behavior that can get them pregnant
Well yes, trivially: it's kinda difficult to engage in behaviour that can get someone on birth control pregnant. The first behaviour pretty much has to be "stop using the birth control".
When I was a teenage boy and learning about periods and the pill for the first time, I thought it obvious that women would choose the pill to stop having periods: they sound awful.
Took a decade or so before I learned that some women actually have much worse experiences on the pill than off. This is presumably why mooncups are really popular. And presumably those also have issues, otherwise I'd have stopped seeing tampons for sale.
I can't tell by your username if you're a woman with the lived experience of what you're stating is the cause of lower birth rates, or one of the many guys like me who just assumed the pill would solve a lot of the problems women talk about?
it’s funny how much mental gymnastics people will do to avoid this obvious answer
birth control and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race
in addition to the obvious birth rate effects, i think there are a lot of other sociological effects from everyone being on hormonal birth control that people don’t want to admit
Restartable windows, or more generically introspection windows, are a really useful technique you can apply in any situation where you understand or control the sources of preemption. The earliest uses of this technique in operating systems that I am aware of are ~25 years old.
The key insight is that the preempter can introspect the program counter of the code being preempted (which is now stable since it was preempted) and act accordingly. The simplest mechanism is to reset their program counter if in a critical section. The more generic mechanism is to jump them to a supplied address. This allows you to do things like hard abort and more.
You can further remove the need for the preempter to understand the preempted code by having the preempted code create a self-introspection code snippet and supplying that with the program counter at preemption. So the preempter just vectors them to their own code which knows how to interpret its own state at any preemption point.
Yep, it is a fairly old technique with a lot of of general applicability beyond just allowing mutex elision for usage of per-core data structures amidst potential core migration. But apparently using your own expert knowledge and actually explaining things and describing generalizations is worthy of flagging these days.
Their popularity is a fad. You are talking about their popularity when they first released in the US. They faded significantly for at least a decade if not two until seeing a recent resurgence so massive even random corner stores carry pokemon card packs these days.
What gets me is that no one actually plays the game or cares about the cards. They buy them purely to resell them to someone else later for more. It's just like crypto in physical form.
When my kids open a pack they usually don't even look at what cards they get. They spread them out just enough to see the border - which is enough to tell whether you've gotten a rare card or not. I'm sure they've thrown plenty of cards in the junk bin without ever once looking at them.
The "special art rare" ones are admittedly pretty cool, and those do get taken out and looked at from time to time. Usually when friends come over.
[1] https://bsky.app/profile/realdanodowd.bsky.social/post/3mnhw...
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