I think the next major innovation is going to be intelligent model routing. I've been exploring OpenClaw and OpenRouter, and there is a real lack of options to select the best model for the job and execute. The providers are trying to do that with their own models, but none of them offer everything to everyone at all times. I see a future with increasingly niche models being offered for all kinds of novel use cases. We need a way to fluidly apply the right model for the job.
At 16k tokens/s why bother routing? We're talking about multiple orders of magnitude faster and cheaper execution.
Abundance supports different strategies. One approach: Set a deadline for a response, send the turn to every AI that could possibly answer, and when the deadline arrives, cancel any request that hasn't yet completed. You know a priori which models have the highest quality in aggregate. Pick that one.
The best coding model won’t be the best roleplay one which won’t be the best at tool use. It depends what you want to do in order to pick the best model.
There is the pre-training, where you passively read stuff from the web.
From there you go to RL training, where humans are grading model responses, or the AI is writing code to try to pass tests and learning how to get the tests to pass, etc. The RL phase is pretty important because it's not passive, and it can focus on the weaker areas of the model too, so you can actually train on a larger dataset than the sum of recorded human knowledge.
I’ll go ahead and say they’re wrong (source: building and maintaining llm client with llama.cpp integrated & 40+ 3p models via http)
I desperately want there to be differentiation. Reality has shown over and over again it doesn’t matter. Even if you do same query across X models and then some form of consensus, the improvements on benchmarks are marginal and UX is worse (more time, more expensive, final answer is muddied and bound by the quality of the best model)
He was offered to undergo "re-education." You might not like this meme. You might find it offensive. But should he be arrested by several officers for it? Of course not. This is just one example of many people being being arrested and imprisoned for offending people. It is against the law to offend people in the UK.
Re-read what you just linked. In the response from the JIMU:
"A 51-year-old man from Aldershot was arrested on suspicion of sending by public communication network an offensive, indecent, obscene, menacing message or matter."
This is the legal basis for the arrest. Without the retweet, police would not have had authority to turn up to his place of residence - twice - and demand entry. No doubt they preferred Brady voluntarily submit himself for interview at the station, but he refused, which I hope we can all agree is the morally correct position. No one should have police turn up outside their house - TWICE - because of a parody retweet.
The law might be a bad one (and probably is) but on balance better that police investigate suspected illegality than don’t. Overall I’d rather be somewhere where even a former royal can be arrested than somewhere the rule of law is optional.
Haha, any comments on that? The police didn't even apologize or admit a mistake, they believed they were doing the right thing and just made a waffle statement about "reflects need in our local communities."
I am European and I would like to challenge you a little. Both the US and Europe have major issues with press and freedom of expression. To give you some examples from the European side. Specifically, the UK:
* Police in England and Wales recorded 12,183 arrests in 2023 for online speech. This number is growing fast, but the government isn't releasing the data anymore. A few years ago this man retweeted a meme (pretty milquetoast by internet standards) and was arrested and asked if he would undergo re-education: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11066477/Veteran-ar...
* The UK records "non-crime hate incidents," whereby if someone complains about you because they don't like you, and if the officer also doesn't like you, they record your behaviour on your permanent record, even if you haven't committed any crime. This record is accessible and used by many industries such as teaching, firefighters, and police. If you have even one non-crime hate incident on your record, you can be excluded from a job.
* The UK Online Safety Act 2023 requires websites with content which "could" harm children to age verify all users. Porn sites. Social media. Etc. This required people sending in their government ID to be permanently retained by a multitude of private companies. There are already many examples of sensitive data being leaked and hacked. Now that kid are using VPNs to access porn sites, the current ruling government is seeking to ban VPNs ("for children", of course).
* UK law criminalises “threatening,” “abusive,” or “insulting” words. The legal test is (I am not making this up), whether someone took offense. This has led to outrageous examples such as this man who is facing a longer sentence for burning a Quran than the man who stabbed him (for burning said Quran): https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8xr12yx5l4o
* In 2023–2024, the government obtained a court injunction preventing publication of details relating to a major data breach involving Afghan relocation applicants (the ARAP scheme). Parts of the reporting were restricted for national security and safety reasons.
* The Defence and Security Media Advisory Notice system allows the government to advise editors not to publish information that could harm national security. They have broad authority here.
* The Official Secrets Act 1989 criminalizes unauthorized disclosure of classified government information. Journalists themselves can potentially be prosecuted. There is no formal public interest defense written into the Act.
* The Contempt of Court Act 1981 restricts what can be published once someone is arrested or charged if publication could prejudice a trial.
* Ofcom regulates broadcast media under impartiality rules. News broadcasters must follow “due impartiality” rules. They can have their licenses revoked if they're not following some rather vague rules.
If I'm honest, I'm very envious of the First Amendment. It's clear that we do not have the same right to free expression in Europe. No doubt there are supporters of this system who prefer a society in which one may not say offensive or unkind things. But I think there are too many examples where suppression of speech inevitably leads to authoritarianism.
> This has led to outrageous examples such as this man who is facing a longer sentence for burning a Quran than the man who stabbed him (for burning said Quran): https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8xr12yx5l4o
This is a more than a bit misleading. The Quran-burner received a £240 fine, his assailant got 20 weeks suspended. Also, though he went for him with a knife, he wasn't successful - nobody was stabbed.
Thanks for your input on UK society. FWIW, despite the coordinated attacks we are doing just fine. If you live your life through social media it might look like we are one step from North Korea though.
Is there something specific you would like to discuss? Preferably not a copy and paste "info" dump like the parent that is designed to be difficult to respond to unless someone is unemployed or an LLM.
All sorts of issues. Personally I would put housing as the number one issue the country faces, and has done for years, but I can see arguments about inability to deliver projects, planning rules in general, a concentration of wealth into fewer hands
I agree. This is why I think Google has the long term advantage. They already have so much data. I can ask Gemini a question and it'll reference an email I sent a month ago.
It's an edge but I think it's going to become hard to gate data as they do. Soon our AI assistants will see and hear everything we see and hear in real-time. All of that will be ingested somewhere. Google can't prevent us from recording the things we see and hear.
Perhaps the competitive moat of the future will be time critical access to data. Google likely gets new data faster than everyone else, and they could use this time arbitrage in products like news, finance, research, etc.
If regulators force the capability of exporting to exist, what ya gonna do?
I continue to find it amusing that people really think corporates are really holding power. No - they are holding power granted to them by the government of the state.
Very often, the regulators don't. Here in the US, half the country would refinance their mortgage for iMessage interoperability... if it were possible. Any time regulators reach for the "stop monopoly" button, Tim Cook screeches like a rhesus monkey and drops a press release about how many terrorists Apple stops.
If lobbying was illegal then you might have a point here, but alas.
I wanted to disagree but I really miss IRC internet. Saving everything we ever said online was a mistake. We need to focus on ephemeral chat making a comeback.
Apple TV is great except they prevent installing software which is not on their App Store. A big one for me is SmartTubeNext, which removes YouTube ads and sponsored segments. I can't even pay for that if I wanted to.
The last few years has made me extremely cynical. I am beginning to think we don't see the protests because the bad guys are brown and Muslim, and people in those circles are not allowed to criticise brown Muslims. I've seen a weak defense that "our government isn't funding this," but our governments aren't funding the Sudanese Civil War in which 150,000 have died to date, and there is still radio silence in those same circles.
If you look at some of the most active groups in the pro-Palestinian left, like the PSL in the United States, you'll see that they have a very long history of praising horrific, oppressive regimes (even North Korea!) that oppose the United States, and dismissing accusations of crimes against humanity when perpetrated by those regimes. The PSL is a minuscule political party, but they're highly involved in organizing these protests.
You are criticising protesters who claim to not talk about the Iranian exactions because their government is not funding it, by pointing out that they are not protesting against the Sudanese Civil War either? I may have misunderstood but their government is probably also not funding that war so it's consistent isn't it?
This is a commonly stated aphorism which betrays a deep ignorance of the issue. Namely the logistics. If we had Star Trek transporter technology we could in fact solve world hunger. We could take the excess bananas grown in Colombia and drop them outside the doors of hungry people in Nigeria. But we don't. It is very expensive and difficult to transport food and water from one place to another. The world has sent Africa $1.5T over the last 50 years, and yet the number of undernourished people has almost tripled in that time, from 100M to 282M as of 2022. Why?
1. Corruption. I saw this first hand. For every $1M sent into Africa, a very large proportion is confiscated by tribes, gangs, militia, and the government. You can send all the excess food in the world, but there are thousands of people between production and the hungry person who is eager to violently steal it.
2. Africa's population is booming. Thanks, in part, to food aid. Half of Nigeria doesn't have access to toilets. 40% doesn't have electricity. 25% doesn't have running water. Their fertility rate is 5.2 children per woman. We are unintentionally propping up a future catastrophe.
3. Food aid has destroyed local farming and food production. Locals cannot compete with free.
4. Equitable allocation is impossible. There is no hunger score above each person's head. Even if there were, there is no supply chain anywhere in the world which can reliably and repeatedly deliver the necessary food aid to each person in the deepest African jungles. We rely on distribution hubs which are sparse, poorly run, intermittent, and subject to temperature and humidity extremes. This means food perishes fast unless it is ultra processed and packed for durability. Basically army rations. Even those expire after some time. Meaning we can't just take the Colombian bananas and send them around the world. Only certain foods work, and they need to undergo expensive and specialised processing. This entire supply chain is far more expensive than you can imagine.
I will close with my own opinion. While the world could sustain a higher population, it is clear to me that it will result in diminishing quality of life for everyone. Crowded conditions and increasing scarcity are not aspirational goals for humanity.
I understand the logistics very well. I'm not suggesting we move the food and water to the people. I'm suggesting we move the people to the food and water. Cities like New York have a population density of 50k/mile^2. We can build lots more cities at that scale much closer to where resources are easily available.
I'm choosing to ignore a lot of the problems with people from disparate backgrounds living together, people not actually wanting to leave where they live, people not wanting to share freely available resources, etc. Those are very hard to solve problems.
I'm only saying that over-population is not the cause of resource problems. If we can solve the other problems then a lack of resources stops being a problem, which proves population size is not the root cause.
I would like to challenge your suggestion - ignoring for the moment the practical issues like cultural and economic and educational roadblocks.
New York doesn't magically receive food. New York is a large net recipient of food imports. It produces value to society and exchanges some of that value for food farmed by others. The U.S. (and most of the West) is structured in such a way that productivity per capita is high, and it means everyone in the food supply chain can live a reasonable lifestyle with enough food. Most African nations do not structure their society this way. It's not an accident. This is the way they choose to live. I grew up in Africa and I'm happy to explain the many ways in which American and African cultures differ. For example, corruption isn't corruption in most of Africa. It's good manners. Gift giving has been happening in tribes for thousands of years. In business it is a common courtesy to provide a gift during negotiations. Of course the person with the largest gift is the most generous and the nicest person, so of course they get the contract. This is a fundamental difference in our cultural and social understanding of what is right and wrong.
What you appear to be exercising is a typical Western hubris: "if we can just get the savages to live with us, they would see the light and live like we do." This assumes that everyone want to adopt your values and way of living. They don't. The reason there isn't much food in Africa (relative to the population size) is not by chance. They live on some of the most fertile land in the world. Africa should be the breadbasket of the world. The issue is that they don't like the way you live and don't want to live that way. Any kind of mass migration strategy would merely result in lots of hungry people in America.
What I said is that the world produces enough food for everyone (and then some), so 'over population' is not the reason for people not having enough resources. I was careful to point out that was all I was saying in several places. I added caveats to say that there are lots of hard problems around moving people to the resources.
You chose to ignore all that, and argue against the point I explicitly didn't make. Congratulations on winning that argument. Your prize is a huge straw man.
This is why I favor tractors, tooling, and bulk material like steel and copper over sending food aid. Give a hungry man bread and he eats for a day, give a hungry man a tractor and a lathe and he will become a farmer/machinist/well driller.
Gangs can only want so many machine tools and steel plates, if you don't use them they are just in the way. But people who do use them and learn how to do it well become immensely valuable and beneficial to all.
I wish it worked like this. We have decades of examples of aid projects where we provide the means to produce food - machinery, fertilisers, irrigation equipment, water boreholes, processing and refining equipment, etc. Most of them fail. All of these machines and processes require training. Often extensively. Good luck convincing any of the locals to dedicate the next year of their lives to learning how to drive a complex tractor and PTO. They know that the tractor will break down soon and the parts will never arrive to fix it. That is, of course, assuming the tractor isn't stolen by next week. Which it usually is. Even if all the stars aligned and they managed to produce food, that will be stolen too. Either by someone else or by them.
Gangs don't use the farm equipment. They steal it and sell it. They will steal any equipment they can and there is an unlimited appetite for equipment on the black market. Especially in China and Southeast Asia.
I certainly agree that it isn't a cure-all, I just don't see how any other program could ever end the cycle without those things included, and that despite the current prevalence of such ideas and projects it probably still isn't enough. Machine technology is what separates total poverty in the modern era from atleast some semblance of prosperity.
One part of the problem could be sending them super cheap/crappy tools because it seems like a better value per dollar and also the constraints of total funding. Sometimes maybe getting ripped off by foreign suppliers because there is a LOT of really crappy steel out there disguised as tools and engines that are all but useless. But tractors and tools that break down that easily are a complete waste of money and time to people who will barely get to use them before they stop working and they likely are right that it is junk. We have the technology to make a tractor that is robust enough that you wouldn't expect any maintenance for years if not a decade and minimal even at that point. I definitely don't see many decent manual CNC machines and lathes or other machine tools getting sent over in numbers enough.
Of course a lot of this still ultimately comes down to cost which is not an easy issue to deal with.
I think it's both. Local populations adapt to whatever the local reservoirs can sustain but as soon as an unexpected climate event occurs (such as unusually low rainfall in a given season), the water reserves can no longer sustain the population. See Cape Town (2015-2018), Chennai (2019), São Paulo (2014-2015), California (2012–2016 & 2020–2022), etc.
If the local reservoirs were not already at capacity, or had much more redundancy, these events would have been much easier to manage. Fewer people in high risk areas would in fact reduce the risks of water scarcity.
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